Active Today, Wednesday, & Thursday…

Hail coated the Eagle Peaks last evening after a thunderstorm moved through. Pic taken 8/15/2021

Hail coated the Eagle Peaks last evening after a thunderstorm moved through.  Pic taken 8/15/2021

Monday – 16 Aug 2021 – 7:45am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 81 and the low this morning was 54. The peak wind at the airfield yesterday was 20mph.

The eastern part of the county was the rain lottery winner yesterday. A couple of weak showers also moved through overnight.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip shows the lottery winner with 0.20” near Chromo
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip shows the lottery winner with 0.20” near Chromo
NWS mesonet 24-hour precip shows the Buckles Lake sensor with most at 0.77”.
NWS mesonet 24-hour precip shows the Buckles Lake sensor with most at 0.77”.

The upper level high has shifted southwest into California and giving us north-northwest flow aloft.  A weak trough is moving southeast into northern Colorado.  Today will be active with moisture in place and instability increasing ahead of the trough.  Drier air will lead to less activity tomorrow.  Then a system will move through Thursday making both Wednesday and Thursday active.  By Friday, drier air and more stable conditions will move in behind the system leading to fewer showers and thunderstorms.

Satellite this morning shows the high pressure over California and a trough moving through northern Colorado.
Satellite this morning shows the high pressure over California and a trough moving through northern Colorado.
Radar this morning shows a few weak showers moving from the north-northwest to the south-southeast.
Radar this morning shows a few weak showers moving from the north-northwest to the south-southeast.

My forecast…

Today through Thursday… Expect scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Storms will be capable of quick bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. Tomorrow won’t be as active.  High temps will be mid-70s to the mid-80s and lows will be mid-40s to the lower 50s.  Afternoon winds will peak around 20mph with isolated gusts up to 40mph possible near showers and thunderstorms.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.30” near town and up to 0.50” in our mountains
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.30” near town and up to 0.50” in our mountains

Friday and Sunday… Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be more isolated.  High temps will be mid-70s to the low-80s and lows will be upper 30s to upper 40s.

Euro precip through Saturday at midnight shows 0.50” to 0.70” in the valley and up to 1.30” in our mountains.
Euro precip through Saturday at midnight shows 0.50” to 0.70” in the valley and up to 1.30” in our mountains.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8089 / 19594432 / 1913

My next update will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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