Good chance for showers through Thursday…

A storm approaching Pagosa Peak. This cell intensified over the Uptown area and dropped heavy rain and hail.  Pic taken 8/14/2021

A storm approaching Pagosa Peak. This cell intensified over the Uptown area and dropped heavy rain and hail.  Pic taken 8/14/2021

Sunday – 15 Aug 2021 – 8:50am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 83 and the low this morning was 46. The peak wind at the airfield yesterday was 30mph.

A pretty strong storm moved through the Uptown area last evening.  I saw a Weather Underground report of 1.00” and a few others in the 0.40” to 0.70” range. A couple of weak showers also moved through overnight.

15 Aug 2021 am CoCoRaHS 24hr precip
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip shows the lottery winner with 0.70”.
15 Aug 2021 am NWS mesonet 24hr precip
NWS mesonet 24-hour precip shows the Devil Mountain sensor with most at 0.10”.

The upper level high is over the Great Basin giving us northerly flow aloft – not what I prefer, but monsoon moisture and instability are in place to give us afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms for the next few days.  Then a system will move through Wednesday or Thursday – the models are in disagreement.  At this point, I’m going with Thursday.  By Friday, drier air and more stable conditions will move in behind the system leading to fewer showers and thunderstorms.

15 Aug 2021 am satellite
Satellite this morning shows the high pressure over the Great Basin.  The blue arrows indicate upper level flow.  There is plenty of moisture and instability for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
15 Aug 2021 am radar
Radar this morning shows a few weak showers moving north to south.

My forecast…

Today through Thursday… Expect scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Storms will be capable of quick bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. High temps will be upper 70s to the mid-80s and lows will be mid-40s to the lower 50s.  Afternoon winds will peak around 20mph with isolated gusts up to 40mph possible near showers and thunderstorms.

15 Aug 2021 am NWS 72hr precip
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.40” near town and up to 1.50” in our mountains

Friday and Saturday… Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be more isolated.  High temps will be mid-70s to the mid-80s and lows will be 40-50.

15 Aug 2021 am Euro precip
Euro precip through Saturday at midnight shows 0.60” to 0.75” in the valley and up to 2.00” in our mountains.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8090 / 19624432 / 1950

My next update will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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