No changes…rain chances continue!

Peak Storm

A storm moved over Pagosa Peak late yesterday afternoon.

8-14-21: 2:30pm update…

Another afternoon of wildly scattered storms yesterday. The rain lottery winners for the area were downtown Pagosa Springs again where 0.14 of an inch fell yesterday afternoon and up on Four Mile Road, where pea size hail and 0.30 fell. There will be more scattered storms this afternoon. Movement will be slowly SSW, so if one builds up over you, you could get a quick quarter of an inch or more very quickly.

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Remote sensor rainfall reports from yesterday show downtown got another good storm.
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A COCORAHS weather station in on Four Mile Road got pea size hail and 0.30 of rain yesterday.

No big change in our future monsoon setup for next week A trough moves into the Pacific NW on Monday and high pressure to our west will be nudged south into Mexico, allowing for a better SW flow next week and more moisture available throughout the atmosphere to fire up afternoon storms. As a result, what are currently very scattered storms will become less scattered next week starting tomorrow (Sunday).

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2:30pm radar shows a large storm to the NW of Durango and some smaller ones to our north and SE. Movement of storms this afternoon is very slowly SSW.
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The 3 day NWS rainfall forecast is looking great. Sunday will be one of our higher odds for rain over the next 3 days. These totals are averages, so there will be rain lottery winners and losers.

My forecast…

The rest of today…A chance for afternoon thunderstorms with highs in the low 80’s under partly cloudy skies. Storms will move very little (SSW) so if one does form over you, you could see a quick quarter of an inch of rain or more. Winds will be from the south from 10-15 mph with some gusts over 20mph in the afternoon. Any storms that do develop will have the potential to produce wind gusts over 30mph and lightning. Rain totals will range from 0-0.40.

Sunday-Thursday: Continued afternoon storms each afternoon. Look for lows in the 40’s to 50’s (lows will be rising as our dew points increase) and highs in the upper 70’s to low 80’s. Winds will be 10-15 mph with some gusts over 20mph in the afternoons. Any storms that do develop will have the potential to produce wind gusts over 30mph and lightning. I think rain totals will range from 0.30-0.80 through the period. As usual, there will be rain lottery winners and losers!

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for August 14th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8089 / 19404532 / 1950

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