Still on track for rain…

Weather Station

It’s nice to actually see Pagosa Peak behind my weather station this morning!

8-13-21: 9:30am update…

While there was an isolated storm that developed to the south of town yesterday, most of us only found spider webs and dust in our rain gauges this morning. Based on the latest model runs, mid level moisture and surface moisture to our south will slowly work its way northward over the weekend, giving us a better chance for afternoon thunderstorms each day. By early next week a trough will dig down from the Pacific NW, enhancing our SW flow.

Smoke is slowly clearing out as we see an atmospheric transition over the next week. To our south is the 1296 acre Amargo fire (west of Dulce, NM) that started over the weekend due to lightning. It is currently 60% contained.

Screenshot 2021 08 13 083203
Here is the latest graphic from “Air Now”. Great to see our air quality index in the green this morning. Smoke will not be totally clearing out but will continue to get better over the next week. Some of our smoke may be coming from the Amargo fire to our south near Dulce.
Screenshot 2021 08 13 085459
Precipitable water will be approaching one inch by this afternoon for our area. Precipitable water is the total water is that contained in a column of unit cross section extending all of the way from the earth’s surface to the “top” of the atmosphere. The higher the precipitable water, the more rain that could potentially fall from a storm.
Screenshot 2021 08 13 082227
The 3 day NWS rainfall forecast continues to look positive for our area. Rain odds will be on the increase starting today.
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The latest 15 day EURO model run shows a slow start to our monsoon transition, but over the next 15 days rain odds will be on the increase.
610prcp.new
The latest NWS 6-10 day precipitation probability puts us in the “slightly above average” zone.

My forecast…

The rest of today…A chance for afternoon thunderstorms with highs in the low 80’s under partly cloudy skies. Storms will move very little so if one does form over you, you could see a quick quarter of an inch of rain or more. Winds will be from the south from 10-15 mph with some gusts over 20mph in the afternoon. Any storms that do develop will have the potential to produce wind gusts over 30mph and lightning. Rain totals will range from 0-0.40.

Saturday-Wednesday: Continued afternoon storms each afternoon, becoming more widespread next week. Look for lows in the 40’s to 50’s (lows will be rising as our dew points increase) and highs in the upper 70’s to low 80’s. Rain odds will increase each day through the period. Winds will be 10-15 mph with some gusts over 20mph in the afternoons. Any storms that do develop will have the potential to produce wind gusts over 30mph and lightning. I think rain totals will range from 0.30-0.80 through the period. As usual, there will be rain lottery winners and losers!

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for August 11th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8089 / 19964531 / 1950

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