Just a slight chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms…

Come say hi to us tomorrow at the Piedra River trailhead between 9:00am and noon!  Pic taken 8/7/2021

Come say hi to us tomorrow at the Piedra River trailhead between 9:00am and noon!  Pic taken 8/7/2021

Friday – 20 Aug 2021 – 5:30pm

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high today was 73 and the low this morning was 50. The peak wind at the airfield yesterday was 27mph and the peak wind today was 23mph.

Precip yesterday in our area was a bit disappointing.  The best storm energy and moisture stayed to our north. The central and northern Colorado mountains got snow!

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from zero to 0.23”
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from zero to 0.23”
Rocky Mountain National Park Alpine Visitor Center web cam 8/20/2021 at 6:21am
Rocky Mountain National Park Alpine Visitor Center web cam 8/20/2021 at 6:21am

The tail-end of the weakening trough moved through our area this morning.  Drier and more stable air has moved in behind it.  Most of this week, moisture and instability will be barely enough to trigger a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mostly over the mountains.  Towards the end of the week, the models hint at the next monsoonal moisture surge.  I’m not sold on it yet.

Satellite this afternoon shows yesterday’s system already over the Plains.  Drier and more stable air has taken over most of the region.
Satellite this afternoon shows yesterday’s system already over the Plains.  Drier and more stable air has taken over most of the region. 
The smoke is considered “light” in our area this afternoon
The smoke is considered “light” in our area this afternoon

My forecast…

Today through Thursday… Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be few and far between.  Consider yourself lucky if you get measurable precip. Afternoons will be breezy with peak winds in the 20-25mph range.

Lows tonight will mostly be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.  The chilly spots will flirt with freezing.  Saturday, Sunday, and Monday high temps will be mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be upper 30s to mid-40s.  By Tuesday highs will be in the 80s and lows will be in the 40s.

20 Aug 2021 pm Euro precip
Euro precip through Thursday at midnight shows around 0.05” in the valley and up to 0.20” in our mountains.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7990 / 19454430 / 1985

We’re taking a break tomorrow.  Mark will take over on Sunday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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