Breezy this afternoon and more smoke tomorrow…

A smoky sunrise. Pic taken 8/5/2021

A smoky sunrise. Pic taken 8/5/2021

Friday – 6 Aug 2021 – 1:45pm

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 84 and the low this morning was 49. The peak wind at the airfield yesterday was 18mph.

Storms brewed over the mountains yesterday but hardly moved.  Most of us didn’t get any precip.

6 Aug 2021 pm CoCoRaHS precip
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports show a bunch of zeros.  The exception was 0.04” up in Lost Valley.

*** The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment has issued the following… ***

WHAT…Air Quality Health Advisory for Wildfire Smoke.

WHEN…800 AM Friday August 06 to 900 AM Saturday August 07

IMPACTS…Heavy smoke from California wildfires will begin to move into northwestern Colorado Friday afternoon and spread in a southeasterly direction across the rest of western and central Colorado Friday night into Saturday morning. Expect the heaviest smoke impacts in sheltered valley locations where atmospheric mixing is more limited.

HEALTH INFORMATION…Public Health Recommendations: If smoke is thick or becomes thick in your neighborhood you may want to remain indoors. This is especially true for those with heart disease, respiratory illnesses, the very young, and the elderly. Consider limiting outdoor activity when moderate to heavy smoke is present. Consider relocating temporarily if smoke is present indoors and is making you ill. If visibility is less than 5 miles in smoke in your neighborhood, smoke has reached levels that are unhealthy. ***

Smoke from fires out west is impacting much of the country.  Smoke in our area is still considered “light” but could go up to “heavy” behind the trough tomorrow morning.
Smoke from fires out west is impacting much of the country.  Smoke in our area is still considered “light” but could go up to “heavy” behind the trough tomorrow morning.

Ridging is over our heads now but is moving east.  Southwest flow ahead of an upper level trough will increase this afternoon, along with a bit of instability and a few spotty showers/thunderstorms, mostly over the mountains. 

Behind the trough we’ll dry out and get more stable leading to an even lesser chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Smoke will increase overnight and into tomorrow.

And when will monsoonal moisture return?  The second half of next week the high will move closer to the Four Corners and we’ll see a bit more monsoonal moisture.  Unfortunately, the models are inconsistent and in disagreement so forecast confidence is low at this point.

Satellite this morning clearly shows the smoke over much of the region.  I outlined the thicker smoke in yellow.  That trough to the west will move through our area tomorrow morning and more smoke will move in behind it.
Satellite this morning clearly shows the smoke over much of the region.  I outlined the thicker smoke in yellow.  That trough to the west will move through our area tomorrow morning and more smoke will move in behind it.
Radar at 1:24pm shows a few showers and thunderstorms over the mountains.  They’re moving towards the east-northeast.
Radar at 1:24pm shows a few showers and thunderstorms over the mountains.  They’re moving towards the east-northeast.

My forecast…

Today through Tuesday… Today is our best chance for a couple of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but it’s pretty weak – consider yourself lucky if you get measurable precip.  High temps will be near 80 to the upper 80s and lows will be mid-40s to mid-50s.  Afternoon winds will peak around 20mph with gusts in the 25-30mph range later today and tomorrow.

Wednesday through Friday… The chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will go up a little as monsoonal moisture and instability increase slightly.  High temps will be near 80 to the upper 80s and lows will be mid-40s to mid-50s.

Euro precip through Friday at midnight shows less than 0.10” in the valley and up to 0.35” in our mountains.
Euro precip through Friday at midnight shows less than 0.10” in the valley and up to 0.35” in our mountains.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8292 / 19814632 / 1976

My next update will be tomorrow afternoon.

  • Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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