Back to playing the rain lottery…

Another glorious morning in paradise. Pic taken 8/4/2021

Wednesday – 4 Aug 2021 – 9:40am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 75 and the low this morning was 48. The peak wind at the airfield yesterday was 23mph.

Most of us got measurable precip yesterday, but I expected a bit more.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from 0.01” to 0.39”. The rain lottery was north of town.*

*NWS mesonet 24-hour precip reports range from 0.04” near town to 0.14” near Buckles Lake.*

The upper level high pressure is over the Great Basin and has helped push the monsoonal moisture plume to our east. Though moisture and instability have decreased considerably, we still have a shot at an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm or two – they’ll be few and far between.

A system will move through northern Colorado Friday and Saturday. It will give us gusty afternoon winds and even drier air will move in behind it. I expect lots of sun and dry weather this weekend.

And when will monsoonal moisture return? The second half of next week the high will move closer to the Four Corners and we’ll see a bit more monsoonal moisture. Unfortunately, the models are inconsistent and in disagreement so forecast confidence is low at this point.

Water vapor this morning indicates that the moisture plume has moved to our east. There is still just enough moisture and instability to fuel an afternoon shower or thunderstorm or two, especially over the mountains.

My forecast…

Today through Tuesday… Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be much more isolated – consider yourself lucky if you get measurable precip. High temps will be near 80 to the upper 80s and lows will be mid-40s to mid-50s. Afternoon winds will peak around 20mph with gusts to 30mph on Friday and Saturday.

*NBM precip through Tuesday at midnight shows no precip in the valley and up to 0.25” in our mountains. I expect a few lucky spots to get measurable precip in the valley.*

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
82	95 / 1940	46	29 / 1950

My next update will be on Friday unless something pops up.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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