Last day of “fun” for a while…

Morning stratus and sun-lit cumulus clouds towards the Rio Grande Pyramid this morning. Pic taken 8/3/2021

Morning stratus and sun-lit cumulus clouds towards the Rio Grande Pyramid this morning. Pic taken 8/3/2021

Tuesday – 3 Aug 2021 – 7:30am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 76 and the low this morning was 48. The peak wind at the airfield yesterday was 21mph.

Many of us got measurable precip yesterday.  The rain lottery winners were the upper Piedra where I saw 0.75” reported on Weather Underground.

NWS mesonet 24-hour precip reports show most locations got some precip.  The winners were near Turkey Springs and the upper Blanco with a half inch.
NWS mesonet 24-hour precip reports show most locations got some precip.  The winners were near Turkey Springs and the upper Blanco with a half inch.

*** The Grand Junction National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch valid from noon through this evening for the San Juan Mountains. ***  This does not include Pagosa Springs.  However, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are capable of dropping large amounts of rain in short periods anywhere in our area. Be careful around low-lying areas, drainages, and streams.

This is the last day the ingredients are in place for widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms.  The second half of the week the monsoonal moisture plume will weaken, and precipitable water and capes will decrease so afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be more isolated.

Water vapor this morning shows us on the back edge of the monsoon moisture plume.  There is still plenty of moisture and instability to give us another round of showers and thunderstorms today.
Water vapor this morning shows us on the back edge of the monsoon moisture plume.  There is still plenty of moisture and instability to give us another round of showers and thunderstorms today.

My forecast…

Today… Will be the most active day of the rest of the week. In the high country the first showers and thunderstorms can develop between 11 and noon and over the valley between 1 and 2pm.  The best chance for showers and thunderstorms is 2 to 6pm with a lesser chance until midnight. Expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Highs will be in the lower to upper 70s.  Lows will be mid-40s to mid-50s.

Afternoon winds will peak around 20mph though isolated convective gusts to 40mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

The HRRR forecast radar from 11am to 11pm shows showers developing quickly after noon.  Cells will move from the north-northwest towards the south-southeast today.
The HRRR forecast radar from 11am to 11pm shows showers developing quickly after noon.  Cells will move from the north-northwest towards the south-southeast today and likely favor the eastern half of the county.

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NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.14” near town, and up to an inch in our nearby mountains
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.14” near town, and up to an inch in our nearby mountains

Tomorrow through Monday… The monsoonal moisture plume will dwindle.  Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be more isolated with the best chance tomorrow.  High temps will be upper 70s to mid-80s and lows will be mid-40s to mid-50s.

NBM precip through Monday at midnight shows 0.15” to 0.25”in the valley and just over an inch in our mountains. Most of this precip will fall today and then precip will become more spotty.  This afternoon individual cells will be capable of heavy rain in a short a period.
NBM precip through Monday at midnight shows 0.15” to 0.25”in the valley and just over an inch in our mountains. Most of this precip will fall today and then precip will become more spotty.  This afternoon individual cells will be capable of heavy rain in a short a period.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8294 / 19404634 / 1935

My next update will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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