Ingredients for heavy rain are still in place…

Fun sky over the mountains this morning. Pic taken 8/2/2021

Fun sky over the mountains this morning. Pic taken 8/2/2021

Monday – 2 Aug 2021 – 9:25am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high was 75 and the low this morning was 57. The peak wind at the airfield yesterday was 9mph.

Two days in a row I would have lost a taco bet.  The anti-rain shield did its job again for much of the county.  The exception was down towards Chromo where nearly ¾” fell.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports show that just enough precip fell near downtown and uptown to wet the ground.  The big winners were near Chromo where 0.54” and 0.70” were reported.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports show that just enough precip fell near downtown and uptown to wet the ground.  The big winners were near Chromo where 0.54” and 0.70” were reported.

*** The Grand Junction National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch valid from noon to 10pm this evening for the San Juan Mountains. ***  This does not include Pagosa Springs.  However, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are capable of dropping large amounts of rain in short periods anywhere in our area. Be careful around low-lying areas, drainages, and streams.

The ingredients are in place for widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow.  Precipitable water is very high so there is abundant moisture.  Capes are also high indicating plenty of instability to fuel the showers and thunderstorms.  The second half of the week the monsoonal moisture plume will weaken, and precipitable water and capes will decrease so afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be more isolated.

Water vapor this morning shows the monsoon moisture plume right over our heads.  The trough is expected to move through our area tomorrow afternoon and then drier air will move in behind it.
Water vapor this morning shows the monsoon moisture plume centered over our heads.  The trough is expected to move through our area tomorrow afternoon and then drier air will move in behind it.
Radar as of 9:06am shows a few weak showers in the region.  Cells today will move from the west-southwest towards the east-northeast.  Tomorrow they’ll move from the northwest towards the southeast. They’ll be capable of dropping large amounts of rain in short periods.
Radar as of 9:06am shows a few weak showers in the region.  Cells today will move from the west-southwest towards the east-northeast.  Tomorrow they’ll move from the northwest towards the southeast. They’ll be capable of dropping large amounts of rain in short periods.

My forecast…

Today and tomorrow… This period will be active with scattered afternoon heavy rain. In the high country the first showers and thunderstorms can develop between 11 and noon and over the valley between 1 and 2pm.  The best chance for showers and thunderstorms is 2 to 6pm with a lesser chance until midnight. Expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Highs will be in the lower to upper 70s.  Lows will be mid-40s to mid-50s.

Afternoon winds will peak around 20mph though isolated convective gusts to 40mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.50” near town, and up to 1.5” in our nearby mountains.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.50” near town, and up to 1.5” in our nearby mountains.

Wednesday through Sunday… The monsoonal moisture plume will break up, but not totally disappear.  Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be more isolated.  High temps will be upper 70s to mid-80s and lows will be mid-40s to mid-50s.

NBM precip through Sunday at midnight shows 0.5” to 0.75”in the valley and up to 1.5” in our mountains. The bulk of this precip will fall between now and tomorrow evening and then precip will become more spotty.  Individual cells can drop a quick 0.50” to 1.0” in small areas and amounts will vary considerably.
NBM precip through Sunday at midnight shows 0.5” to 0.75”in the valley and up to 1.5” in our mountains. The bulk of this precip will fall between now and tomorrow evening and then precip will become more spotty.  Individual cells can drop a quick 0.50” to 1.0” in small areas and amounts will vary considerably.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8292 / 19584636 / 1950

I might do a quick update this afternoon, otherwise my next update will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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