Clouds are building over the mountains. Pic taken 8/1/2021 at 11:55am
Sunday – 1 Aug 2021 – 11:55am
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 77 and the low this morning was 51. The peak wind at the airfield yesterday was 23mph.
I would have lost a taco bet yesterday. I expected most of the county to get a soaking, but most of us got nothing or just a few drops. The western part of the county did pretty good – rain lottery winners!
*** The Grand Junction National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch valid from noon to 9pm this evening for the San Juan Mountains. *** This does not include Pagosa Springs. However, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are capable of dropping large amounts of rain in short periods anywhere in our area. Be careful around low-lying areas, drainages, and streams.
The subtropical ridge is parked over the Four Corners region and the monsoonal moisture plume extends all the way up the West Coast. The moisture plume will be with us through at least Tuesday and then start breaking up. The next few days have potential to be very wet. By the middle of next week, afternoon showers/thunderstorms will be more isolated.
Today through Tuesday… This period will be active with scattered afternoon heavy rain. In the high country the first showers and thunderstorms can develop between 11 and noon and over the valley between 1 and 2pm. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms is 2 to 6pm with a lesser chance until midnight. Expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
Highs will be in the lower to upper 70s. Lows will be mid-40s to mid-50s.
Afternoon winds will peak around 20mph though isolated convective gusts to 40mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday through Saturday… The monsoonal moisture plume will break up, but not totally disappear. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be more isolated. High temps will be upper 70s to mid-80s and lows will be mid-40s to mid-50s.
Pagosa Springs historical data
|Average High||Record High / Year||Average Low||Record Low / Year|
|82||90 / 1993||47||37 / 1958|
Later today I’ll post a summary of July. My next forecast post will be tomorrow morning.