Lots of moisture in the air…

Clouds are building over the mountains. Pic taken 8/1/2021 at 11:55am

Clouds are building over the mountains. Pic taken 8/1/2021 at 11:55am

Sunday – 1 Aug 2021 – 11:55am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 77 and the low this morning was 51. The peak wind at the airfield yesterday was 23mph.

I would have lost a taco bet yesterday.  I expected most of the county to get a soaking, but most of us got nothing or just a few drops.  The western part of the county did pretty good – rain lottery winners!

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip are mostly 0.00”.  The winner was 0.01” south of Echo Canyon Reservoir
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip are mostly 0.00”.  The winner was 0.01” south of Echo Canyon Reservoir
NWS mesonet 24-hour precip indicates that the western part of the county did well yesterday.
NWS mesonet 24-hour precip indicates that the western part of the county did well yesterday.

*** The Grand Junction National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch valid from noon to 9pm this evening for the San Juan Mountains. ***  This does not include Pagosa Springs.  However, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are capable of dropping large amounts of rain in short periods anywhere in our area. Be careful around low-lying areas, drainages, and streams.

The subtropical ridge is parked over the Four Corners region and the monsoonal moisture plume extends all the way up the West Coast.  The moisture plume will be with us through at least Tuesday and then start breaking up.  The next few days have potential to be very wet.  By the middle of next week, afternoon showers/thunderstorms will be more isolated.

Water vapor satellite show lots of moisture in the atmosphere.  It won’t take much warming today to fuel showers and thunderstorms.
Water vapor satellite show lots of moisture in the atmosphere.  It won’t take much warming today to fuel showers and thunderstorms.
Radar as of 11:45am is just starting show the first showers popping up over the mountains.  They’ll be slow movers today capable of dropping large amounts of rain in short periods.
Radar as of 11:45am is just starting show the first showers popping up over the mountains.  They’ll be slow movers today capable of dropping large amounts of rain in short periods.

My forecast…

Today through Tuesday… This period will be active with scattered afternoon heavy rain. In the high country the first showers and thunderstorms can develop between 11 and noon and over the valley between 1 and 2pm.  The best chance for showers and thunderstorms is 2 to 6pm with a lesser chance until midnight. Expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Highs will be in the lower to upper 70s.  Lows will be mid-40s to mid-50s.

Afternoon winds will peak around 20mph though isolated convective gusts to 40mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.80” near town, and up to 2.5” in our nearby mountains.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.80” near town, and up to 2.5” in our nearby mountains.

Wednesday through Saturday… The monsoonal moisture plume will break up, but not totally disappear.  Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be more isolated.  High temps will be upper 70s to mid-80s and lows will be mid-40s to mid-50s.

NBM precip through Saturday at midnight shows 0.5” to 0.75”in the valley and up to 2.0” in our mountains. The bulk of this precip will fall between now and Tuesday evening and then precip will become more spotty.  Individual cells can drop a quick 0.50” to 1.0” in small areas and amounts will vary considerably.
NBM precip through Saturday at midnight shows 0.5” to 0.75”in the valley and up to 2.0” in our mountains. The bulk of this precip will fall between now and Tuesday evening and then precip will become more spotty.  Individual cells can drop a quick 0.50” to 1.0” in small areas and amounts will vary considerably.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8290 / 19934737 / 1958

Later today I’ll post a summary of July.  My next forecast post will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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