But wait, there’s more!

Lightning

A storm with lots of lightning slips to the south of our home about a mile north of Hatcher Lake yesterday.

7-31-21: 9am update…

Thanks to an abundance of moisture on the surface and in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere, our rain odds continue to look great for at least the next 3-5 days. Precipitable water (NOAA def: “Measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all of the water vapor in a vertical column over a given location, usually extending from the surface to 300 mb.”) continues to run in the 1 inch or more range. If a storm does develop over your backyard there is a good chance it will drop a lot of rain very quickly.

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Precipitable Water for our area will be in the 1 inch range this afternoon.

We have a Flash Flood Watch in effect today for our surrounding mountains (mainly over 8000 feet). While Pagosa Springs is not in the Watch Box, with very slow moving storms today, flash flooding is possible anywhere. Upper level high pressure will be in place and storms will simply be popping up all afternoon. It will be the typical case of rain lottery winners and losers.

Screenshot 2021 07 31 081356
A flash flood watch has been issued through this evening for the areas shaded in green.
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COCORAHS 24 hour rainfall reports (We need more of you!)
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24 hour remote rainfall sensors for our area.
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The latest NWS 3 day rainfall forecast continues to look great! A reminder that this is more of an average rainfall forecast. There will be some of us who get more rain than is forecast and some that will get less than this.

My forecast…

The rest of today…A good chance for scattered afternoon and evening storms with a high near 80. Storms will be slow to no movers today so look up above you for dark clouds forming! Rainfall totals will range from 0-0.50, but could approach or exceed an inch. There is a Flash Flood watch for higher elevations in our area. As we saw yesterday, some storms could become severe enough to produce small hail, brief heavy rain, wind gusts over 40mph and lots of lightning!

Sunday-Tuesday: Continued good chances for afternoon thunderstorms. As is the case with convective activity, there will be rain lottery winners and losers. Each day we could see 0-0.50 inches of rain or higher with double that total in the mountains. Lows will remain in the upper 40’s to low 50’s and highs around 80.

For any of you visiting our area, watch out for rapidly changing weather conditions when storms move in! Temps can drop 20 degrees in minutes, winds can gust to 40mph and lightning and small hail is always a possibility.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for July 30th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8394 / 19404734 / 1913

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