Odds of storms are ramping up…


Storms were more scattered yesterday but this one was a major lightning producer and dropped some great rainfall totals along N. Pagosa Blvd. Photo by Mark Langford

7-28-21: 9am update…

As forecast, yesterday’s storms were more scattered, but since they were slow movers, some of your backyards saw almost an inch of rain late in the afternoon!

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Some very decent rain totals from yesterday afternoon’s storm on the west side of town. As is the case with convective activity, some of us saw only a trace or zero.

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A wider look at rainfall totals from yesterday with remote sensors in our area. Pagosa Springs and Durango have red dots next to them.

While mid-level dry air is still precariously close to us (yellow) as indicated in the latest water vapor imagery, high pressure will move over Kansas later today, putting us in a more moist flow. A low pressure over south Texas and Mexico will bring some Gulf moisture into the flow as well.

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The latest mid-level satellite imagery shows that we are now in a wetter flow than yesterday.
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Precipitable water values will be near an inch this afternoon. This gives us a good idea of how much moisture is available from the surface to the top of the atmosphere. The higher the total, the more rain that could fall from a storm.
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NWS 3 day rainfall average forecast.

My forecast…

The rest of today…A good chance for scattered afternoon storms with a high near 80. Storms will slowly move NNW, so look to your SSE. Rainfall totals will range from 0-0.50, but could approach or exceed an inch.

Thursday-Saturday: Continued good chances for afternoon thunderstorms. As is the case with convective activity, there will be rain lottery winners and losers. Each day we could see 0-0.50 inches of rain or higher with double that total in the mountains. Lows will remain in the upper 40’s to low 50’s and highs around 80.

For any of you visiting our area, watch out for rapidly changing weather conditions when storms move in! Temps can drop 20 degrees in minutes, winds can gust to 40mph and lightning and small hail is always a possibility.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for July 28th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8393 / 19474627 / 1913

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