Some will get hammered and some won’t…

There were lots of hail reports yesterday.  Lucinda sent this picture from the hospital area. Pic taken 7/21/2021

There were lots of hail reports yesterday.  Lucinda sent this picture from the hospital area. Pic taken 7/21/2021

Quick update – Thursday – 22 July 2021 – 2:25pm

So far the activity has been focused up Piedra Road in The Reserve, Hatcher Lake, Rouch, and Jacobson Hill. There have been lots of lightning strikes in the area.

Like yesterday, cells are very slow movers and capable of dropping large amounts of rain in short periods, along with gusty winds, small hail, lots of lightning, and minor flooding. We’re not done yet today and tomorrow will be similar.

Infrared satellite at 2pm shows an impressive cell along the northern portion of Archuleta County.
Infrared satellite at 2pm shows an impressive cell along the northern portion of Archuleta County.
Radar at 1:38pm. The circle is around town.  The heaviest rain is indicated by the yellow and orange north of town.
Radar at 1:38pm. The circle is around town. The heaviest rain is indicated by the yellow and orange north of town.
There was lot of lightning around 2pm and it's still rumbling as I type.
There was lot of lightning around 2pm and it’s still rumbling as I type.

My next post might be this evening or tomorrow afternoon.

  • Shawn


Thursday – 22 Jul 2021 – 9:30am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 85 and the low this morning was 56. Yesterday’s peak wind at the airfield was 21mph.

Precip totals yesterday range from zero to 2.1” – wow!  We got a bunch of reports of heavy rain and hail. The graphics below highlight the areas that got hit the hardest.  Thanks a bunch for your reports and pictures!

Weather Underground rain totals yesterday at 5pm show the highest amounts near the golf course and airfield: 0.99” and 1.45”.  I drew a rough circle around the area that got hit the hardest, but it should extend farther west to include the hospital area and Terri’s Ace.
Weather Underground rain totals yesterday at 5pm show the highest amounts near the golf course and airfield: 0.99” and 1.45”.  I drew a rough circle around the area that got hit the hardest, but it should extend farther west to include the hospital area and Terri’s Ace.
Infrared satellite at 3:20pm.  The heaviest precip and hail fell along the eastern edge of that impressive cell.  Radar at one point indicated tops to 50,000ft – quite high for our area.
Infrared satellite at 3:20pm.  The heaviest precip and hail fell along the eastern edge of that impressive cell.  Radar at one point indicated tops to 50,000ft – quite high for our area.
Radar at 3:08pm.  The circle is around town.  The red area is where the heaviest precip and hail occurred.
Radar at 3:08pm.  The circle is around town.  The red area is where the heaviest precip and hail occurred.
Radar indicated hail swath at 3:30pm lines up nicely with your reports.
Radar indicated hail swath at 3:30pm lines up nicely with your reports.

*** The Grand Junction National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch valid noon to midnight today for the southwest San Juan Mountains. ***  At this time, this does not include Pagosa Springs.  However, storms the next few days will be capable of dropping large amounts of rain in short periods anywhere in our area. Be careful around low-lying areas, drainages, and streams.

The Weather Prediction Center gives us a “slight” chance for excessive rainfall today and tomorrow.
The Weather Prediction Center gives us a “slight” chance for excessive rainfall today and tomorrow.

The upper level high pressure is to our north and will wobble around the region for the next 5-7 days.  The monsoonal moisture plume will be focused over our heads through tomorrow giving us brief periods of heavy rain.  Then the plume may weaken temporarily, but not go away.  Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely for a while.

Satellite this morning shows the upper level high wobbling near the Four Corners.  The heart of the moisture plume will be over us through tomorrow.  Light flow around the high means storms will move slowly and erratically.
Satellite this morning shows the upper level high wobbling near the Four Corners.  The heart of the moisture plume (circled in green) will be over us through tomorrow.  Light flow around the high means storms will move slowly and erratically.

My forecast…

Today through Wednesday… In the high country the first showers and thunderstorms can develop between 11 and noon and over the valley between 1 and 2pm.  The best chance for showers and thunderstorms is 2 to 6pm with a lesser chance until midnight.

The atmosphere is primed for impressive precip. Expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. Be leery of flooding in low-lying areas and flash floods near drainages and streams. Just like yesterday, some areas will get hammered while others hardly get anything.

Highs will be mid-70s to the mid-80s.  Lows will be upper-40s to mid-50s.

Afternoon winds will peak around 20mph though isolated convective gusts to 40mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.50” near town, and up to 1.50” in our nearby mountains.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.50” near town, and up to 1.50” in our nearby mountains.
I’m switching models to the NBM.  I think the Euro is too dry, however, the NBM paints too broad a picture.  Rainfall amounts will vary considerably.  NBM precip through Wednesday at midnight shows 1.3” near town and up to 2.50” in our mountains. Individual cells can drop a quick 1-2” in small areas.
I’m switching models to the NBM.  I think the Euro is too dry, however, the NBM paints too broad a picture.  Rainfall amounts will vary considerably.  NBM precip through Wednesday at midnight shows 1.3” near town and up to 2.50” in our mountains. Individual cells can drop a quick 1-2” in small areas.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8291 / 19394734 / 1993

I might do a quick update as things develop today, otherwise my next update will be tomorrow afternoon.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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One Response

  1. Y’all sure make it easy to understand by explaining everything to us in layman’s terms! Now…bring it on!!

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