A cell like this will give you a good soaking! Pic taken 7/21/2021 around 1:50pm
Wednesday – 21 July 2021 – 2:00pm
Cells have built quickly over the mountains and are hardly moving. To get hit by one, it will have to build over your head or propagate towards you. Because they are slow movers, there is potential for isolated areas of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, lightning, and minor flooding. This will be the story for the next few days.
I might do another update this evening. Otherwise, my next update will be tomorrow morning.
Wednesday – 21 Jul 2021 – 9:45am
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 82 and the low this morning was 54. Yesterday’s peak wind at the airfield was 29mph.
Most of us got no precip or just a few drops. The big winners were south of town where nearly an inch fell, proving again how spotty these showers can be.
*** The Grand Junction National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch valid noon to midnight today for the southwest San Juan Mountains. *** At this time, this does not include Pagosa Springs. However, storms the next few days will be capable of dropping large amounts of rain in short periods anywhere in our area. Be careful around low-lying areas, drainages, and streams.
The upper level high pressure is to our north and will wobble around the region for the next 5-7 days. The monsoonal moisture plume will be focused over our heads through at least Saturday giving us brief periods of heavy rain. Then the plume may weaken temporarily, but not go away. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely for a while.
Today through Tuesday… Each morning we’ll wake up to mostly clear skies and then clouds will build as it warms up. In the high country the first showers and thunderstorms can develop between 11 and noon and over the valley between 1 and 2pm. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms is 2 to 6pm with a lesser chance until midnight.
Precipitable water will be 150% of average through Saturday and then drop to 125%. This means the atmosphere is primed for impressive precip. Expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. Be leery of flooding in low-lying areas and flash floods near drainages and streams.
Highs will be mid-70s to the mid-80s. Lows will be mid-40s to mid-50s.
Afternoon winds will peak less than 20mph though isolated convective gusts to 40mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.
Pagosa Springs historical data
|Average High||Record High / Year||Average Low||Record Low / Year|
|83||93 / 1945||46||35 / 1958|
I hope Mother Nature forces me to do an update with rain totals tomorrow morning!