Quick update…

A cell building over Middle Mountain

A cell like this will give you a good soaking! Pic taken 7/21/2021 around 1:50pm

Wednesday – 21 July 2021 – 2:00pm

Cells have built quickly over the mountains and are hardly moving. To get hit by one, it will have to build over your head or propagate towards you. Because they are slow movers, there is potential for isolated areas of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, lightning, and minor flooding. This will be the story for the next few days.

A cell building over Middle Mountain
Current satellite shows cells building rapidly over the mountains. There is very little movement.
A cell building over Middle Mountain
Current radar
Current lightning - those clusters indicate that these cells are hardly moving
Current lightning – those clusters indicate that these cells are hardly moving

I might do another update this evening. Otherwise, my next update will be tomorrow morning.

  • Shawn


Game on!

Wednesday – 21 Jul 2021 – 9:45am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 82 and the low this morning was 54. Yesterday’s peak wind at the airfield was 29mph.

Most of us got no precip or just a few drops.  The big winners were south of town where nearly an inch fell, proving again how spotty these showers can be.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip totals vary from zero to 0.64”.  On Weather Underground I saw a couple of totals near an inch south of town.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip totals vary from zero to 0.64”.  On Weather Underground I saw a couple of totals near an inch south of town.

*** The Grand Junction National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch valid noon to midnight today for the southwest San Juan Mountains. ***  At this time, this does not include Pagosa Springs.  However, storms the next few days will be capable of dropping large amounts of rain in short periods anywhere in our area. Be careful around low-lying areas, drainages, and streams.

Turn around don’t drown graphic

The upper level high pressure is to our north and will wobble around the region for the next 5-7 days.  The monsoonal moisture plume will be focused over our heads through at least Saturday giving us brief periods of heavy rain.  Then the plume may weaken temporarily, but not go away.  Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely for a while.

Satellite this morning shows the upper level high just to our north.  The heart of the moisture plume will be over us through Saturday.  Light flow around the high means storms will move slowly and erratically.
Satellite this morning shows the upper level high just to our north.  The heart of the moisture plume will be over us through Saturday.  Light flow around the high means storms will move slowly and erratically.

My forecast…

Today through Tuesday… Each morning we’ll wake up to mostly clear skies and then clouds will build as it warms up.  In the high country the first showers and thunderstorms can develop between 11 and noon and over the valley between 1 and 2pm.  The best chance for showers and thunderstorms is 2 to 6pm with a lesser chance until midnight.

Precipitable water will be 150% of average through Saturday and then drop to 125%. This means the atmosphere is primed for impressive precip. Expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. Be leery of flooding in low-lying areas and flash floods near drainages and streams.

Highs will be mid-70s to the mid-80s.  Lows will be mid-40s to mid-50s.

Afternoon winds will peak less than 20mph though isolated convective gusts to 40mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.80” near town, and 1” to 2” in our nearby mountains.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.80” near town, and 1” to 2” in our nearby mountains.
Euro precip through Tuesday at midnight shows 0.50” to 0.75” in the valley and up to 2.25” in our mountains.  The Euro continues to be the driest model.  Other forecast models show double those amounts.  I expect most of the valley to fall into the lower Euro range, but the rain lottery winners will get double that. I won’t be surprised to see individual cells drop a quick 1-2” in small areas. It’s all convective precip so amounts will vary.
Euro precip through Tuesday at midnight shows 0.50” to 0.75” in the valley and up to 2.25” in our mountains.  The Euro continues to be the driest model.  Other forecast models show double those amounts.  I expect most of the valley to fall into the lower Euro range, but the rain lottery winners will get double that. I won’t be surprised to see individual cells drop a quick 1-2” in small areas. It’s all convective precip so amounts will vary.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8393 / 19454635 / 1958

I hope Mother Nature forces me to do an update with rain totals tomorrow morning!

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Picture of Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

One Response

  1. At about 3pm got POUNDED at Growing Spaces on Majestic Dr. Some of the heaviest I’ve seen, and a flash flood in the parking lot!! Got home to Oak Hills, it was wet with aliitle rain. Not much back-up from that cell.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2024 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon