That was fun! More to come…

Great lightning show last night! Pic taken by Mark Langford 7/18/2021

Monday – 19 Jul 2021 – 10:10am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 86 and the low this morning was 54. Yesterday’s peak wind at the airfield was 22mph. Winds with last night’s thunderstorms gusted into the 25-30mph range for some folks.

As usual there was a wide range of precip totals. The good news is that most of the county got measurable precip! The rain lottery winner was Aspen Springs with 0.81”.

There was quite a bit of lightning last night. Keep an eye out for smoke. If you see any, report it.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip totals (top) vary from 0.06” to 0.81”. NWS mesonet 24-hour precip totals (bottom) in Archuleta County range from 0.02” to 0.31” near town.*

*** Reminder… There is still a Stage 1 Fire Ban in effect. ***

The upper level high pressure is to our north and pushing weak northeast flow over us. Monsoonal moisture and instability will continue to cause scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. I’m happy to say that I do see not see much change in the pattern for a while!

Dinosaur Satellite this morning shows the high pressure centered to our north and giving us weak northerly and northeasterly flow. We’re still on the edge of the monsoon moisture plume (outlined in green). Storms will move from east-northeast to west-southwest today.

My forecast…

Today through Sunday… Each morning we’ll wake up to mostly clear skies and then watch the clouds build as it warms up. In the high country the first showers and thunderstorms can develop between 11 and noon and over the valley between 1 and 2pm. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms is 2 to 6pm with a lesser chance until midnight.

It won’t be quite as active today and then will ramp up tomorrow and the rest of the week. By Wednesday, precipitable water is 150% of average – that’s pretty high for us. Expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. Be leery of flooding in low-lying areas and flash floods near drainages and streams.

Highs will be upper 70s to the mid-80s. Lows will be mid-40s to mid-50s.

Afternoon winds will peak less than 20mph though isolated convective gusts to 40mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

*NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.30” near town, and up to 1.00” in our nearby mountains.*

Euro precip through Sunday at midnight shows 0.30” to 0.75” in the valley and up to 2.00” in our mountains. The Euro continues to be the driest model. Other forecast models show double those amounts. I expect most of the valley to fall into the lower Euro range, but the rain lottery winners will get double that. It’s all convective precip so amounts will vary.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
82	96 / 1989	46	35 / 1956

I might do a quick post tomorrow morning, otherwise, my next post will be Wednesday morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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3 Responses

RICHARD MILLER says:

July 19, 2021 at 4:17 pm

Glad Aspen Springs got the winning spot cause right up above them in Oakhill, not so much. Maybe tonight…..

Reply
David L Hansen says:

July 19, 2021 at 10:30 am

.3″ Lake Forest area. Keep it coming.

Reply
1. Shawn Pro says:
  
  July 19, 2021 at 12:20 pm
  
  Excellent – thanks for the report!
  
  Reply

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