More afternoon showers and thunderstorms…

Dark clouds building over Pagosa Peak this afternoon. Pic taken 7/23/2021

Dark clouds building over Pagosa Peak this afternoon. Pic taken 7/23/2021

Friday – 23 Jul 2021 – 4:00pm

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 81 and the low this morning was 52. Yesterday’s peak wind at the airfield was 14mph. Some folks north of town had gusts in the 25-30mph range during yesterday’s thunderstorms.

Precip totals yesterday range from zero to 1.56” – wow!  The rain lottery winners were near Hatcher Lake and the The Reserve.  There were a BUNCH of lightning strikes.  One missed our house by less than 100 yards – about gave us heart attacks!

Weather Underground rain totals yesterday around 7pm show the highest amounts near Hatcher Lake and the The Reserve: 1.56” and 0.99”.
Weather Underground rain totals yesterday around 7pm show the highest amounts near Hatcher Lake and the The Reserve: 1.56” and 0.99”.

*** The Grand Junction National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch valid through late tonight for the southwest San Juan Mountains and San Juan River Basin to include Pagosa Springs. ***  Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are capable of dropping large amounts of rain in short periods anywhere in our area. Be careful around low-lying areas, drainages, and streams.

The upper level high pressure will continue to wobble around the region for the next 5-7 days.  The monsoonal moisture plume is still focused over our heads today.  Then the plume may weaken temporarily, but not go away.  Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely for a while.

Infrared satellite this afternoon shows the upper level high to our north and the moisture plume over our heads.  Thunderstorms are popping up all over the Four Corners region.
Infrared satellite this afternoon shows the upper level high to our north and the moisture plume over our heads.  Thunderstorms are popping up all over the Four Corners region.
Radar this afternoon.  So far most of the activity this afternoon has stayed over the mountains. Storms are moving from the east-northeast to the west-southwest.
Radar this afternoon.  So far most of the activity this afternoon has stayed over the mountains. Storms are moving from the east-northeast to the west-southwest.

My forecast…

Today through Thursday… In the high country the first showers and thunderstorms can develop between 11 and noon and over the valley between 1 and 2pm.  The best chance for showers and thunderstorms is 2 to 6pm with a lesser chance until midnight.

The atmosphere is primed for heavy precip. Expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. Be leery of flooding in low-lying areas and flash floods near drainages and streams. Just like yesterday, some areas will get hammered while others hardly get anything.

Highs will be mid-70s to the mid-80s.  Lows will be upper-40s to mid-50s.

Afternoon winds will peak around 20mph though isolated convective gusts to 40mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.40” near town, and up to 1.0” in our nearby mountains.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.40” near town, and up to 1.0” in our nearby mountains.
NBM precip through Thursday at midnight shows 0.9” near town and up to 2.00” in our mountains. Individual cells can drop a quick 1-2” in small areas and amounts will vary considerably.
NBM precip through Thursday at midnight shows 0.9” near town and up to 2.00” in our mountains. Individual cells can drop a quick 1-2” in small areas and amounts will vary considerably.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8292 / 19404631 / 1973

My next update will be tomorrow afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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