Dark clouds building over Pagosa Peak this afternoon. Pic taken 7/23/2021
Friday – 23 Jul 2021 – 4:00pm
Overall situation…
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 81 and the low this morning was 52. Yesterday’s peak wind at the airfield was 14mph. Some folks north of town had gusts in the 25-30mph range during yesterday’s thunderstorms.
Precip totals yesterday range from zero to 1.56” – wow! The rain lottery winners were near Hatcher Lake and the The Reserve. There were a BUNCH of lightning strikes. One missed our house by less than 100 yards – about gave us heart attacks!

*** The Grand Junction National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch valid through late tonight for the southwest San Juan Mountains and San Juan River Basin to include Pagosa Springs. *** Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are capable of dropping large amounts of rain in short periods anywhere in our area. Be careful around low-lying areas, drainages, and streams.
The upper level high pressure will continue to wobble around the region for the next 5-7 days. The monsoonal moisture plume is still focused over our heads today. Then the plume may weaken temporarily, but not go away. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely for a while.


My forecast…
Today through Thursday… In the high country the first showers and thunderstorms can develop between 11 and noon and over the valley between 1 and 2pm. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms is 2 to 6pm with a lesser chance until midnight.
The atmosphere is primed for heavy precip. Expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. Be leery of flooding in low-lying areas and flash floods near drainages and streams. Just like yesterday, some areas will get hammered while others hardly get anything.
Highs will be mid-70s to the mid-80s. Lows will be upper-40s to mid-50s.
Afternoon winds will peak around 20mph though isolated convective gusts to 40mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.


Pagosa Springs historical data
Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
82 | 92 / 1940 | 46 | 31 / 1973 |
My next update will be tomorrow afternoon.
– Shawn
2 Responses
Rain late Friday into Saturday morning. 0.6″ on Log Hill Rd. off Fawn Gulch. Yippee!!
So far today…just a giant tease in Twincreek Village! Looks a little more promising this evening!