Suppose a storm hit and you couldn’t see it?

Smoke

Towering cumulus clouds are forming to our north but you can’t see them!

7-12-21: 2:30pm update…

As I work on this post at 2pm, there are storms near Chama and what could become storms to our north. Unfortunately the smoke is so bad they may move in without being seen this afternoon!

Screenshot 2021 07 12 134827
2pm radar indicates some big storms to our SE, moving south. Some new storms are trying to develop to our northwest.

As high pressure moves SW, more mid level moisture will begin funneling into our area from the NW over the next couple of days. Meanwhile, a couple of shortwaves will rotate around the high pressure along with more surface moisture being drawn in with a SW flow. All of these ingredients will give us a very good chance for afternoon thunderstorms, especially Tuesday through Thursday. I’m also hoping that some of the smoke will dissipate as the week rolls on.

Screenshot 2021 07 12 135339
The high pressure ridge to our west will drift SW into southern California over the next 24 hours setting us up for more mid level moisture and allow for shortwaves to track into our area. This will be a big rain booster for us.
Screenshot 2021 07 12 134912
The latest NWS 3 day rainfall forecast for our area.

My forecast…

The rest of today…A chance for some scattered storms…movement will be SSE. Good luck on seeing them before they hit!

Tuesday-Thursday: Look for increased odds for storms from Tuesday through Thursday. As is the case with convective activity, there will be rain lottery winners and losers but I think by Thursday night most of us will have found at least 0.40 of rain in our gauges with some of you finding over an inch. As usual, the mountains will see about double those totals. Lows will remain in the 40’s and highs will drop to the upper 70’s for Tuesday through Thursday due to increased cloud cover and rain. Rain odds decrease the rest of the week but there will be a continued chance for PM Poppers. For any of you visiting our area, watch out for rapidly changing weather conditions! Temps can drop 20 degrees in minutes, winds can gust to 40mph and lightning is always a possibility.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8496 / 19404529 / 1951

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