Smoke, heat and rain…

Our smoky skies are back! 😢

7-11-21 2:30pm update.

Thanks to some additional cloud cover and the smoke, our temperatures are about 10 degrees less hot than yesterday as of this post. While there is a chance for some afternoon poppers, most of the best odds for rain will remain to our south until Tuesday, when a shortwave tracks over the northern Rockies and our precipitable water values peak in the 0.75 to 1.25 inch range.

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There will be a lot more moisture in our atmosphere starting on Tuesday through the rest of the workweek as shown in this graphic indicating precipitable water.
Thankfully our highs today are a bit more reasonable from the temps we saw yesterday. Our airport set a record high of 95 degrees and Alamosa set a record high of 94 degrees yesterday.
Screenshot 2021 07 10 170213
Hellish temperatures hit our area yesterday…check out the remote sensor temperature south of Bayfield!

A northerly flow aloft is bringing in the dreaded smoke that we suffered from in most of June. Hopefully as the trough approaches on Monday and we get more convective activity (storms), we will see our blue skies return.

Screenshot 2021 07 11 133739
Thanks to high pressure to our west and low pressure to our east, we are locked into a northerly flow.
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It could be worse! As bad as the smoke is here, it’s much worse to our NW.
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Latest visible satellite imagery…Yuck!
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Our 3 day rainfall forecast from the NWS is looking promising!

My forecast…

The rest of today…A chance for some very scattered storms but most of the rain will stay to our south. With all of the smoke and some clouds around we should stay below 90 degrees for our high.

Monday-Wednesday: Look for increased odds for rain as our workweek begins. Storms will be more scattered on Monday but by Tuesday and Wednesday your chance for seeing your rain gauge fill up with more than smoke will be great. As is the case with convective activity, there will be rain lottery winners and losers. I think by Wednesday night most of us will have found at least 0.25 of rain in our gauges with some of you potentially finding an inch. As usual, the mountains will see about double those totals. Lows will remain in the 40’s and highs will drop to the lower 80’s on Monday and upper 70’s for Tuesday and Wednesday due to increased cloud cover and rain. Rain odds decrease the rest of the week but there will be a continued chance for PM Poppers. For any of you visiting our area, watch out for rapidly changing weather conditions! Temps can drop 20 degrees in minutes, winds can gust to 40mph and lightning is always a possibility.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8493 / 19584525 / 1915

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