Hot and dry today – more active next week…

It’s going to be warm today!

It’s going to be warm today!

Saturday – 10 Jul 2021 – 8:05am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 90 and the low this morning was 50. Yesterday’s peak wind was 29mph though a few spots hit 40mph as showers and thunderstorms moved through. Precip was light for most us, but there were a couple of big rain lottery winners.  Devil Mountain got 0.52” and the upper Blanco got 0.69”.

24-hour precip totals vary from zero to 0.69”. Most of us got just a few drops.
24-hour precip totals vary from zero to 0.69”. Most of us got just a few drops.

The upper level high pressure is currently over southwest Utah and will slowly move towards the southwest.  Upper level northwest flow will dry us out and warm us up today.  Things ramp up a little Sunday and Monday, and then will be more active the second half of the week as more subtropical moisture moves into the area.

Satellite this morning shows northwest flow into our area around the strong high over the southwest corner of Utah.  Drier and warmer air will move in today and then more moisture will begin to move in tomorrow and increase through the week.
Satellite this morning shows northwest flow into our area around the strong high over the southwest corner of Utah.  Drier and warmer air will move in today and then more moisture will begin to move in tomorrow and increase through the week.

My forecast…

Today through Monday… Today will be hot and dry in the valley but an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible in the high country.  On Sunday and Monday spotty afternoon showers or thunderstorms are possible, especially in the mountains.

High temps today:

– Town and Uptown mid-90s

– Above 7,800ft low 90s

– Arboles around 105 – yuck!

Sunday and Monday will be about 5 degrees cooler with highs in the mid-80s to low 90s.  Lows will be upper 40s to mid-50s.

Afternoon winds will peak in the 20-25mph range today.  Isolated convective gusts to 40mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.

*** The National Weather Service has issued a Heat Advisory valid today from noon to 8pm.  With near record heat and gusty afternoon winds, BE CAREFUL WITH THOSE FIRES. ***

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.11” near town, and up to 0.25” in our mountains.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.11” near town, and up to 0.25” in our mountains.

Tuesday through Friday… Increased precipitable water and capes, a measure of instability, indicate a more active period with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Temps will be closer to average with highs in the lower to upper 80s and lows in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

Afternoon winds will peak less than 20mph, though isolated convective gusts to 40mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Euro precip through Tuesday at midnight shows 0.40” to 0.60” in the valley and up to 2.0” in our mountains.  This is all convective precip so amounts will vary.
Euro precip through Tuesday at midnight shows 0.40” to 0.60” in the valley and up to 2.0” in our mountains.  This is all convective precip so amounts will vary.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8393 / 19894430 / 1912

Mark will take over tomorrow.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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2 Responses

  1. High yesterday was 95 F at my house located 4 miles NNW of downtown PS but humidity was only 8%. My car thermometer measured 102 F downtown at 2 pm. It was hot but OK in the shade!

  2. I’m looking forward to using your post as my primary Pagosa Springs weather source. thsnkyou

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