Hot and just a few spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms…

A glorious view along Mill Creek Road this morning. Pic taken 7/8/2021.

 A glorious view along Mill Creek Road this morning. Pic taken 7/8/2021.

Thursday – 8 Jul 2021 – 9:10pm

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high today was 86 and the low this morning was 51. Today’s peak wind was 13mph. Heavy rain fell in a few lucky areas this afternoon while hardly any fell in others.  The rain lottery winner was Turkey Springs with 0.63”!  The Upper Blanco also did good with 0.25”.

NWS mesonet 12-hour precip totals vary from 0.01” to 0.63”
NWS mesonet 12-hour precip totals vary from 0.01” to 0.63”

The upper level high pressure is currently over southern Utah and will slowly move towards the southwest.  Upper level northwest flow will dry us out and warm us up through Saturday.  We’ll see a few spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms tomorrow and then Saturday will be dry.  Things ramp up a little Monday and Tuesday, and then will be more active the second half of the week as more subtropical moisture moves into the area.

Satellite this afternoon shows northwest flow into our area around the strong high over southern Utah.  Drier and warmer air will move in on Saturday.
Satellite this afternoon shows northwest flow into our area around the strong high over southern Utah.  Drier and warmer air will move in on Saturday.

My forecast…

Friday through Sunday… There will be a few spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms Friday and Sunday.  Saturday will be dry in the valley but an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible in the high country. 

Highs will be mid-80s to mid-90s and lows will be upper 40s to mid-50s. Friday and Saturday will be the warmest with temps near the tops of those ranges and then Sunday it will cool towards the bottoms of those ranges.

Afternoon winds will peak less than 20mph, though isolated convective gusts to 40mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.02” near town, and up to 0.10” in our mountains.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.02” near town, and up to 0.10” in our mountains.

Monday and Tuesday… We’ll see a few more afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially over the mountains.

Highs will be mid-80s to low 90s and lows will be mid-40s to mid-50s.

Afternoon winds will peak less than 20mph, though isolated convective gusts to 40mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Euro precip through Tuesday at midnight shows 0.05” to 0.10” in the valley and up to 0.70” in our mountains.  This is all convective precip so amounts will vary.
Euro precip through Tuesday at midnight shows 0.05” to 0.10” in the valley and up to 0.70” in our mountains.  This is all convective precip so amounts will vary.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8396 / 19894430 / 1955

My next update will be Saturday morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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