Fewer showers and thunderstorms…

Along the Continental Divide Trail east of Wolf Creek. Pic taken 7/6/2021.

Along the Continental Divide Trail east of Wolf Creek. Pic taken 7/6/2021.

Tuesday – 6 Jul 2021 – 6:30pm

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high today was 83 and the low this morning was 49. Today’s peak wind was 29mph. Nearly 0.20” of rain fell yesterday in the uptown area.  Raindrops have been few and far between for most of the county today.

24-hour CoCoRaHS totals vary from 0.02” to 0.18”
24-hour CoCoRaHS totals vary from 0.02” to 0.18”

The upper level high pressure will set up over the Great Basin which will put us under a more northerly, more dry, and a more stable flow.  We’ll see less afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity tomorrow, a slight increase Thursday as a weak trough tries to move through, and then very little activity this weekend.

Satellite this afternoon shows less moisture and less instability in our area.  The upper level high over the southwest corner of Utah is pushing drier air into our area from the northwest – not what we want to see this time of year!
Satellite this afternoon shows less moisture and less instability in our area.  The upper level high over the southwest corner of Utah is pushing drier air into our area from the northwest – not what we want to see this time of year!
Radar shows most of the showers and thunderstorms well to our east and south and they’re moving towards south-southeast.  This time of year we want to see a lot more activity over Arizona and want them moving towards us.
Radar shows most of the showers and thunderstorms well to our east and south and they’re moving towards south-southeast.  This time of year we want to see a lot more activity over Arizona and want them moving towards us.

My forecast…

Wednesday through Friday… Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be few and far between.  Thursday will be the most active but doesn’t look too impressive.  Let’s hope for a few “slow movers” to give us a soaking!

Highs will be lower 80s to lower 90s and lows will be lower 40s to lower 50s. Friday will be the warmest day of the week with temps near the top of those ranges.

Afternoon winds will peak less than 20mph, though isolated convective gusts to 40mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.09” near town, and a 0.50” bullseye in the South San Juans.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.09” near town, and a 0.50” bullseye in the South San Juans.

Saturday and Sunday… Saturday looks dry with just a few cumulus clouds developing over the mountains.  On Sunday one or two of those cumulus clouds could grow into a shower or thunderstorm over the mountains.

Highs will be lower 80s to lower 90s and lows will be lower 40s to lower 50s.  Saturday will be warm with temps near the top of those ranges.

Euro precip through Sunday at midnight shows 0.05” to 0.10” in the valley and up to 0.60” in our mountains.  Most of this precip will fall by Friday evening and it’s all convective so amounts will vary.
Euro precip through Sunday at midnight shows 0.05” to 0.10” in the valley and up to 0.60” in our mountains.  Most of this precip will fall by Friday evening and it’s all convective so amounts will vary.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8498 / 19894228 / 1941

My next update will be Thursday morning.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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