Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms all week…

Flowers are popping in the high country! We admired these in the Wolf Creek Pass area on 7/4/2021.

Flowers are popping in the high country! We admired these in the Wolf Creek Pass area on 7/4/2021.

Monday – 5 Jul 2021 – 7:50am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 88 and the low this morning was 54. Yesterday’s peak wind was 24mph. It occurred around midnight as a band of showers moved through.  Those showers dropped up to 0.05” on a few lucky folks.

Satellite this morning shows us on the norther edge of the subtropical moisture and the high still centered near the Four Corners.  The high will shift towards the Great Basin through the week.
Satellite this morning shows us on the norther edge of the subtropical moisture and the high still centered near the Four Corners.  The high will shift towards the Great Basin through the week.

We’re at the northern edge of the subtropical moisture – the best monsoonal activity is to our south.  Looking forward, the upper level high pressure will set up over the Great Basin which will put us under a more northerly and a more stable flow.  It’s not an ideal set-up for us, but precipitable water and capes, a measure of instability, stay high enough for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms to continue.  Some days will be more active than others.

My forecast…

Today through Sunday… Clouds will build each day as we warm up.  The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be 2 to 6pm. In the high country, the first few showers and thunderstorms could pop up by noon – keep your eyes on ears open!  Brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, lightning are possible.

Highs will be lower 80s to lower 90s and lows will be lower 40s to lower 50s. Friday will be the warmest day of the week with temps near the top of those ranges.

Afternoon winds will peak less than 20mph, though isolated convective gusts to 40mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.08” near town, and 0.40” to 0.75” in our mountains.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.08” near town, and 0.40” to 0.75” in our mountains.
Euro precip through Sunday at midnight shows 0.10” to 0.20” in the valley and up to 1.0” in our mountains.  It’s all convective precip so amounts will vary.
Euro precip through Sunday at midnight shows 0.10” to 0.20” in the valley and up to 1.0” in our mountains.  It’s all convective precip so amounts will vary.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8395 / 19894124 / 1912

I’ll be out in the woods today and tomorrow so my next post will probably be tomorrow afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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