“Patience” is the word of the week!

PM storms

Cumulonimbus mammatus clouds formed as yesterday afternoon’s storm near Pagosa Peak fell apart. Photo by Mark Langford.

6-27-21: 8am update…Good chance for PM Poppers, but they will be scattered.

Our bizarre northerly flow continues for the next couple of days giving us a chance for scattered storms similar to a traditional monsoonal event. Thanks to a “Hell High” over British Columbia, moisture from the Pacific will wrap around the high pressure and take the long route to SW CO. People living in Portland and Seattle will potentially see all time record highs over the next 48 hours with forecast highs in the 100’s. Below are all time records set yesterday in that area:

HOTTEST DAY EVER RECORDED (ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS)...

 OBSERVATION SITE         26 JUNE HIGH       PREV. ALL-TIME RECORD
------------------------------------------------------------------
TROUTDALE, OR           109 DEG ***NEW***       108  / 17 Aug 1977
PORTLAND, OR (AIRPORT)  108 DEG ***NEW***       107  /  8 Aug 1981
                                                     / 10 Aug 1981
                                                     / 30 Jul 1965
VANCOUVER, WA           108 DEG ***TIED***      108  / 29 JUL 2009

The ridge that has been tormenting and baking the NW will move east and break down, potentially setting us up for traditional monsoon pattern by later this week with a SW flow. We will see storms form to our north today, moving south, then forming to our NE on Monday, moving SW.

Screenshot 2021 06 27 070057
Mid level water vapor imagery shows moisture (blue and white) streaming around the Hell High over British Columbia.

Most rainfall reports from yesterday were less than 0.05 in the valley, but as you can see below, most of us should find around a half inch of rain in our gauges over the next three days even with scattered storms dropping unequal amounts of precipitation each day.

Screenshot 2021 06 27 064159
NWS rainfall forecast for the next 3 days.

My forecast…

Today…Partly cloudy this morning with storms building up again this afternoon…more numerous than yesterday. Wind gusts to around 20mph except higher in and around the storms. Highs will peak around 70 degrees, then drop back to upper 30’s and low 40’s overnight. I think precipitation totals through this afternoon will be 0-0.30 for our area and about double that for the mountains. Since these will be scattered storms there will be rain lottery winners and losers as usual. For any of you visiting our area, watch out for rapidly changing weather conditions! Temps can drop 20 degrees in minutes, winds can gust to 40mph and lightning is always a possibility (see Arleen’s post from yesterday).

For this week: Look for afternoon thunderstorms to form all week long. Temps will range from the upper 30’s and low 40’s for lows and highs in the 70’s early this week, then warming to the 40’s and upper 70’s as the week progresses. The overall average rainfall totals by the end of week could reach an inch for most locations in the valley.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8295 / 19903926 / 1965

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