Gearing up for the main event…

An evening shower over our mountains last night. – Pic taken 6/25/2021 around 7:45pm

An evening shower over our mountains last night.  – Pic taken 6/25/2021 around 7:45pm

Saturday – 26 Jun 2021 – 4:10pm

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 75 and the low this morning was 42. Yesterday’s peak wind was 45mph. Some lucky folks got around 0.10” of precip yesterday.

Weather Underground precip from yesterday
Weather Underground precip from yesterday
NWS mesonet precip from yesterday
NWS mesonet precip from yesterday

*** There is not a Red Flag Warning out for Archuleta County.  Even if a Red Flag Warning is not issued, consider the fire danger extremely high. ***

Satellite this this afternoon shows a whole bunch of cumulus and a few cumulonimbus (thunderstorm) clouds. They’re moving very slowly to the south.
Satellite this afternoon shows a whole bunch of cumulus and a few cumulonimbus (thunderstorm) clouds. They’re moving very slowly to the south.
Radar at 3:52pm shows spotty showers and a few thunderstorms all moving slowly towards the south.  Because these are moving so slowly, they could be soakers!
Radar at 3:52pm shows spotty showers and a few thunderstorms all moving slowly towards the south.  Because these are moving so slowly, they could be soakers!

Moisture is in place and we’ll stay unstable for the at least the next 7-10 days.  The current pattern with the giant high pressure centered over British Columbia could transition into a monsoon pattern for us – good news!

I’m concerned the first few thunderstorms will spark new fires, so keep an eye out for smoke.  With some luck enough rain might fall to decrease fire danger – yay!

My forecast…

Today through Friday… Clouds will build each day as we warm up.  The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be 2 to 6pm, however they are possible anytime, especially over the mountains. Brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, lightning are likely.

Highs will be 70-80 and lows will be upper 30s to upper 40s.

Afternoon winds will peak in the 20-25mph range, though isolated convective gusts to 45mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.40” near town, 0.50” to 0.60” closer to the mountains, and 1.40” to 2.00” for all of our mountains.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.40” near town, 0.50” to 0.60” closer to the mountains, and 1.40” to 2.00” for all of our mountains.
Euro precip through Friday at midnight shows 0.40” to 0.75” in the valley and up to 2.50” in our mountains.  Other models show 1.00” to 1.50” in the valley and up to 3.00” in the mountains!  It’s all convective precip so amounts will vary.
Euro precip through Friday at midnight shows 0.40” to 0.75” in the valley and up to 2.50” in our mountains.  Other models show 1.00” to 1.50” in the valley and up to 3.00” in the mountains!  It’s all convective precip so amounts will vary.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8294 / 19903822 / 1951

Mark will take over tomorrow.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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