Weather Contest! Let it RAIN! How much will Pagosa see during monsoon season?


UPDATE: Friday, October 1st, 4:30pm

We have a winner!!! September started out good with moisture from the the remnants of Hurricane Nora at the beginning of the month and then moisture from a couple of cut-off lows at the end of the month. But otherwise those events sandwiched what was essentially a very dry month. However, the average across the county for the month of September was 1.87″ very near the average of 1.85″.

September’s 1.87″ plus July’s 2.90″ and August’s 1.08″ added up to 5.85″ (.40″ less than average).

The winner of the $50 guitar service from Precision Guitar Works is Dean Lee!!! Dean had a guess of 5.95″. Congratulations, Dean!!!

I will have all the details of our next weather contest tomorrow morning.

– Arleen

UPDATE: Tuesday, September 7th, 4:00pm

How much rain will Pagosa see from July – September, the 2021 monsoon season? Well, sadly August precipitation turned out well below average. In fact the average of all area CoCoRaHS reports was 1.08″, less than half the average of 2.69″ for the month of August.

That brings the total for monsoon season to 3.98″. September is the final month for monsoon season. It started out well with the remnants of Hurricane Nora but is looking to be only about the average of 2.00″. Sadly, the ideal monsoon regime is not set up at this time.

UPDATE: Wednesday, August 4th, 5:30pm

How much rain will Pagosa see from July – September, the 2021 monsoon season? We now know July turned out well!

Verification is an average of all CoCoRaHS stations.

In July, we saw an average precipitation of 2.9”. The average for July is 1.88″. So we were a huge 154% of normal. Thanks for all those rain dances and washing all your vehicles! 

August is our wettest month of the year with an average of 2.52” of precip. Since the monsoon tends to weaken in September due to temps in the upper levels cooling, the average precip for September drops to 1.85”.

We are currently in neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) of neutral. The CPC is forecasting for that to begin to change with cooling seas surface temperatures into August and September. The result is a La’ Nina ENSO pattern which normally impacts us with less than average precipitation. And the Madden Julian oscillation pattern also is a drier scenario for us in September. That could all change with a tropical storm that gets in the Baja area and advects tropical moisture our way…

For grins and to promote local businesses, Pagosa Weather is doing a Monsoon weather contest.

The contest and prize… Forecast the amount of measured rain that Pagosa Springs will receive the three months of monsoon season from July through September. The person with the closest guess will win a $50 value service for Precision Guitar Works!

Precision Guitar Works

Precision Guitar Works is Steve Hay’s full service fretted instrument repair shop in Pagosa. He also does vintage restorations and custom builds for clients.

The prize would be a free guitar setup (acoustic or electric 6 string) which consists of a complete inspection of the guitar, fretboard cleaning and conditioning, truss rod adjustment, fret polishing, tighten and lubricate hardware, installation of a new set of strings and string action adjustment.

This is a $50 value!!!

Note: If the winner has a bass guitar or 12 string guitar, they would be responsible for supplying the strings but Steve would still do the setup.

This is a great prize for the number of talented musicians we have in Pagosa.

But also for anyone that has wanted to learn to play guitar. The contest will wrap up on October 1st just as our weather starts to cool. You could pick up a used one for yourself. Getting Steve’s full service would be a great first step to your musical career.  It is also a great gift for a student and for some of us older folks.  “Learning to play an instrument can enhance verbal memory, spatial reasoning and literacy skills. Playing an instrument makes you use both sides of your brain, which strengthens memory power.”

Located- 202 E McCabe St. Pagosa Springs Co. 81147

Phone Number: 217-253-4104

The Rules

– Each person can make one guess in the comments of this post or on the Facebook Post

– The guess can be in whole inches, 1/10th of an inch, and 1/100s of an inch.  Example: 1.23”

– Multiple same guesses will go to the first person with that guess

– Hint: You might want to review my monsoon post from the other day for clues as to what might happen

– No more guesses after Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 at 11:59pm

– The Pagosa Weather team is excluded – sorry Mark!


The Pagosa Weather Team will determine the amount of precipitation amount using an average from a number of CoCorahs observation sites in the Pagosa Springs area.

Let’s have fun and support our local businesses! Good Luck!

– Arleen

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

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Picture of Arleen Pro

Arleen Pro

I grew up in Montana where my love of the mountains is rooted. I was in the Air Force, forecasting aviation weather, for 24 years. I had eight assignments and my favorites were Colorado, Alaska, Korea, and Germany. I deployed a number of times including to Iraq and Afghanistan. After RV traveling for nine years, we found paradise in Pagosa. Here we enjoy playing outside in the spectacular San Juan mountains!
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7 Responses

  1. This contest is now closed for any more guesses. Good luck to everyone who participated. Hoping someone with a large precip totals wins. We need it!

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