Interesting and potentially wet pattern setting up…

The Mules Ears are still putting on a beautiful show. There weren’t many clouds this morning. That will change as we warm up and clouds build over the mountains. – Pic taken 6/24/2021 around 7:45am

The Mules Ears are still putting on a beautiful show.  There weren’t many clouds this morning.  That will change as we warm up and clouds build over the mountains.  – Pic taken 6/24/2021 around 7:45am

Thursday – 24 Jun 2021 – 10:15am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 84 and the low this morning was 48. Yesterday’s peak wind was 23mph. A couple bands of showers moved through last night between 10 and midnight.  Near town and the east side of the county did pretty good with around 0.10”.  The average was 0.04” to 0.06”.  It’s not much, but it’s a start!

NWS mesonet 24 hour precip
NWS mesonet 24 hour precip

Smoke update…

Smoke is pretty light this morning.  The band to the southwest is expected to move our way this afternoon and evening.  Then it looks like this influx of moisture and winds aloft turning more northerly will minimize the smoke in our area.
Smoke is pretty light this morning. The band to the southwest is expected to move our way this afternoon and evening. Then it looks like this influx of moisture and winds aloft turning more northerly will minimize the smoke in our area.

*** There is not a Red Flag Warning out for Archuleta County.  Even if a Red Flag Warning is not issued, consider the fire danger extremely high. ***

Water vapor this morning shows a band of moisture moving towards us from the west-southwest. That moisture plus instability will lead to spotty showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Water vapor this morning shows a band of moisture moving towards us from the west-southwest. That moisture plus instability will lead to spotty showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

There is an interesting weather pattern setting up.  By this weekend an omega block (see the graphic below) will be firmly in place.  Usually a blocking pattern is not good for us, but in this case, we will benefit from it!  Diffluent flow aloft plus moisture already in place will lead to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the next 7-10 days.

The Euro 500mb anomaly valid Sunday at 6pm clearly shows an omega block.  The poor folks in the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and Alberta will experience record heat.  The diffluent flow over us (indicated by the yellow arrows) is fuel for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  The trough to our east (indicated by the red dashed lines) is expected to turn into a cut-off low and sink slowly into the northern plains and spin there for the next 7-14 days.  This is NOT a monsoon pattern, but the result will be similar!
The Euro 500mb anomaly valid Sunday at 6pm clearly shows an omega block.  The poor folks in the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and Alberta will experience record heat.  The diffluent flow over us (indicated by the yellow arrows) is fuel for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  The trough to our east (indicated by the red dashed lines) is expected to turn into a cut-off low and sink slowly into the northern plains and spin there for the next 7-14 days.  This is NOT a monsoon pattern, but the result will be similar!

Action will start slowly today and tomorrow and then ramp up this weekend.  I’m concerned the first few thunderstorms will spark new fires, so keep an eye out for smoke.  By the end of the weekend enough rain might fall to decrease fire danger – yay!

My forecast…

Today through Wednesday… Spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible today and tomorrow and then will become widespread this weekend.  We’ll wake up to mostly clear skies and then clouds will build as we warm up.  Folks playing in the high country keep your eyes and ears open as clouds build rapidly between 10 and noon each day.

Highs will be lower 70s to lower 80s and lows will be 40-50.

Afternoon winds will peak in the 20-25mph range, though isolated convective gusts to 35mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.05” near town, 0.10” closer to the mountains and 0.30” to 0.60” in our mountains.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.05” near town, 0.10” closer to the mountains and 0.30” to 0.60” in our mountains.
NBM precip through Wednesday at midnight shows 0.40” near town, 0.60” closer to the mountains, and around a 1.00” in our mountains.  Some models show around an inch in the valley and 2-3” in the mountains!  It’s all convective precip so amounts will vary.
NBM precip through Wednesday at midnight shows 0.40” near town, 0.60” closer to the mountains, and around a 1.00” in our mountains.  Some models show around an inch in the valley and 2-3” in the mountains!  It’s all convective precip so amounts will vary.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8292 / 19903826 / 1951

If things get active this afternoon, I’ll do a quick post.  Otherwise my next post will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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3 Responses

  1. Late post but we had 0.15″ rain from Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Log Park off Fawn Gulch Road.

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