Spotty afternoon showers and a little cooler the rest of the week…

These two pictures were taken at the same place up at Wolf Creek. The picture on the left was taken yesterday, 6/21/2021, and the picture on the right was taken 2/19/2021 when Wolf Creek reported 115” of snow at the summit!

These two pictures were taken at the same place up at Wolf Creek. The picture on the left was taken yesterday, 6/21/2021, and the picture on the right was taken 2/19/2021 when Wolf Creek reported 115” of snow at the summit!

Tuesday – 22 Jun 2021 – 7:15pm

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high today was 87 and the low this morning was 50. Today’s peak wind was 28mph.

Smoke update…

Smoke is trapped under the big high pressure and spinning around it clockwise.  Southwest flow aloft is pushing more smoke into our area.
Smoke is trapped under the big high pressure and spinning around it clockwise.  Southwest flow aloft is pushing more smoke into our area.

*** There is a Red Flag Warning valid until 9pm tonight.  Nothing has been issued at this time for tomorrow, but conditions won’t change much.  Even if a Red Flag Warning is not issued, consider the fire danger extremely high. ***

Current water vapor shows an influx of moisture into Arizona from the southwest. That moisture will start to move into our area tomorrow and could stick around for the next week!
Current water vapor shows an influx of moisture into Arizona from the southwest. That moisture will start to move into our area tomorrow and could stick around for the next week!

My forecast…

Wednesday through Tuesday… Our giant high pressure ridge will move very slowly to our east and weaken.  Precipitable water and instability will gradually increase leading to a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  Raindrops will be few and far between, but some lucky spots could get a soaking.  Sadly, because we’re so dry, the thunderstorms might produce more wind and lightning than rain.  I am concerned about lightning sparking new fires.  If you spot smoke, report it immediately.

Highs will be upper 70s to upper 80s and lows will be 40-50.

Afternoon winds will peak in the 20-25mph range, though isolated convective gusts to 35mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

NWS 72-hour precip shows up to 0.05” in the valley and up to 0.15” in our mountains.
NWS 72-hour precip shows up to 0.05” in the valley and up to 0.15” in our mountains.
Euro precip through Tuesday at midnight shows 0.25” to 0.50” in the valley and up to 1.50” in our mountains.  This is all spotty afternoon convective precip so some folks will do better and some will do worse.
Euro precip through Tuesday at midnight shows 0.25” to 0.50” in the valley and up to 1.50” in our mountains.  This is all spotty afternoon convective precip so some folks will do better and some will do worse.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8193 / 19543723 / 1951

My next post will be Thursday morning, unless something pops up.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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