Time for your rain dances!…

A cumulonimbus with an evening glow over Pagosa Peak last night. – Pic taken 6/24/2021 around 7:00pm

A cumulonimbus with an evening glow over Pagosa Peak last night.  – Pic taken 6/24/2021 around 7:00pm

Friday – 25 Jun 2021 – 8:45am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 81 and the low this morning was 48. Yesterday’s peak wind was 27mph. We got 15 raindrops in the Turkey Springs yesterday evening. As I get ready to hit the “send” button, we are getting few raindrops near town!

Smoke update…

25 Jun 2021 am smoke map
Smoke is pretty light this morning.  The added moisture, instability, and flow aloft swinging around more northerly, will result in minimal smoke in our area.  This will be my last smoke update unless things change.

*** There is not a Red Flag Warning out for Archuleta County.  Even if a Red Flag Warning is not issued, consider the fire danger extremely high. ***

Satellite this morning shows some weak showers in the Navajo Reservoir area moving towards us from the southwest. We have moisture in place and it’s unstable so more clouds will develop as we warm up.
Satellite this morning shows some weak showers in the Navajo Reservoir area moving towards us from the southwest. We have moisture in place and it’s unstable so more clouds will develop as we warm up.
Radar around 8am also shows weak showers moving towards us from the southwest.
Radar around 8am also shows weak showers moving towards us from the southwest. As I hit the “send” button, a few raindrops are falling near town.

There is an interesting weather pattern setting up.  By this weekend an omega block will be firmly in place.  Usually a blocking pattern is not good for us, but in this case, we will benefit from it!  Diffluent flow aloft plus moisture already in place will lead to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the next 7-10 days.

I’m concerned the first few thunderstorms will spark new fires, so keep an eye out for smoke.  With some luck enough rain might fall to decrease fire danger – yay!

My forecast…

Today through Thursday… Spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible today and then will become widespread this weekend.  We’ll wake up to mostly clear skies and then clouds will build as we warm up.  Folks playing in the high country keep your eyes and ears open as clouds build rapidly between 10 and noon each day.

Highs will be lower 70s to lower 80s and lows will be 40-50.

Afternoon winds will peak in the 20-25mph range, though isolated convective gusts to 35mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.29” near town, nearly 0.50” closer to the mountains and more than 1.00” for all of our mountains. This is through Monday morning.  The 72hr period Monday morning through Thursday morning could be similar.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.29” near town, nearly 0.50” closer to the mountains and more than 1.00” for all of our mountains. This is through Monday morning.  The 72hr period Monday morning through Thursday morning could be similar.

Euro precip through Thursday at midnight shows 0.75” near town, around 1.00” closer to the mountains, and 1.00” to 2.50” in our mountains.  Some models show 1.50” in the valley and 2-3” in the mountains!  It’s all convective precip so amounts will vary.
Euro precip through Thursday at midnight shows 0.75” near town, around 1.00” closer to the mountains, and 1.00” to 2.50” in our mountains.  Some models show 1.50” in the valley and 2-3” in the mountains!  It’s all convective precip so amounts will vary.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8295 / 19903822 / 1951

If things get active this afternoon, I’ll do a quick post.  I’ll be busy tomorrow morning so my  next forecast post will be tomorrow afternoon.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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