Hot, dry, and breezy…

I love fly-fishing Williams Creek Reservoir on beautiful calm mornings! Pic taken 6/13/2021

I love fly-fishing Williams Creek Reservoir on beautiful calm mornings! Pic taken 6/13/2021

Sunday – 13 Jun 2021 – 5:00pm

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high so far today is 89 and the low this morning was 42. Today’s peak wind has been 28mph.

These are the record highs Today through Wednesday:  89, 90, 90, 88, 87 – We’ll get warmer that that!

Smoke update…

This image is an HRRR forecast smoke product valid at 9am tomorrow (Monday). It depicts smoke at all levels. Much of the smoke is aloft in our area. Smoke is trapped under the big high pressure and spinning clockwise around it.  The high is expected to move slowly southwest. Most of the smoke is expected to stay on the west side of the high and we’ll be on the eastern edge.
This image is an HRRR forecast smoke product valid at 9am tomorrow (Monday). It depicts smoke at all levels. Much of the smoke is aloft in our area. Smoke is trapped under the big high pressure and spinning clockwise around it.  The high is expected to move slowly southwest. Most of the smoke is expected to stay on the west side of the high and we’ll be on the eastern edge.

*** Red Flag Warnings have not been issued the last few days because winds are below the threshold.  However, it will be VERY DRY, warm, breezy, and vegetation will continue to dry out through at least Wednesday.  Even if a Red Flag Warning is not issued, consider the fire danger extremely high. ***

Satellite this afternoon shows thunderstorm activity along the Front Range and towards southwest New Mexico.  Smoke isn’t too bad over southwest Colorado. I circled the fires that are clearly visible.
Satellite this afternoon shows thunderstorm activity along the Front Range and towards southwest New Mexico.  Smoke isn’t too bad over southwest Colorado. I circled the fires that are clearly visible.

My forecast…

Rest of today through Tuesday… We’ll continue to see small afternoon cumulus clouds, and periods of smoke. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible over the mountains on Tuesday.

Afternoon winds will peak 20-25mph each day.

High Temps through Wednesday…

– Above 7,700ft and closer to the mountains: upper 80s to low 90s

– Below 7,700ft and near town: low to mid 90s

– Arboles: You guys will flirt with 100 and likely top out in the low 100s

Low temps Today through Wednesday… Will be upper 30s to low 50s

Wednesday through Sunday… Our giant blocking high pressure will move slowly southwest and start weakening.  There is a slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm on Wednesday and a better chance the rest of the period.  Showers will be few and far between, but it’s nice to have a shot.  Temps will start to cool a couple of degrees each day starting Thursday.

13 Jun 2021 pm Euro precip
Euro precip through Sunday at midnight shows around 0.05” near town and 0.25” in our mountains.  This is all spotty afternoon convective precip so some folks will do better and some will do worse.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7889 / 19563522 / 1951

My next update will be on Monday afternoon unless something pops up.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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