Too hot for the hot tub!

Weather Underground temps – 6/14/2021 at 3:55pm

Monday – 14 Jun 2021 – 4:25pm

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high so far today is 92 and the low this morning was 45. Today’s peak wind has been 24mph. The cold spots are getting down to the mid-30s. We’re seeing 45-50 temperature swings!

These are the record highs Today through Wednesday: 90, 90, 88 – We’ll get warmer that that!

Smoke update…

This is the smoke analysis at 3:23pm. I’d move the yellow for “medium” smoke farther over us. It’s been pretty smokey this afternoon. Unfortunately, the smoke is getting trapped under the giant high pressure and has nowhere to go.

*** Red Flag Warnings have not been issued the last few days because winds are below the threshold. However, it will be VERY DRY, warm, breezy, and vegetation will continue to dry out through at least Wednesday. Even if a Red Flag Warning is not issued, consider the fire danger extremely high. ***

Satellite this afternoon shows some weak convective activity around the outer edge of the big high pressure. The lighter color over Archuleta County and much of the region is smoke. It’s trapped under the high and spinning around it clockwise. The smoke is going to be with us for a while.

My forecast…

Rest of today through Tomorrow… We’ll continue to see afternoon cumulus clouds, and periods of smoke. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible over the mountains tomorrow afternoon.

Afternoon winds will peak 20-25mph each day.

High Temps through Wednesday…

– Above 7,700ft and closer to the mountains: upper 80s to low 90s

– Below 7,700ft and near town: low to mid 90s

– Arboles: You guys will flirt with 100 and likely top out in the low 100s

Low temps Today through Wednesday… Will be upper 30s to low 50s

It’s too hot for the hot tub! – classic SNL video

Wednesday through Sunday… Our giant blocking high pressure will move very slowly southwest and start weakening. Precipitable water and instability will gradually increase leading to a slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm on Wednesday and Thursday and then a better chance on Friday and Saturday. Showers will be few and far between, but it’s nice to have a shot. Sadly, because we’re so dry, they might produce more wind and lightning than rain. We’ll also continue to see periods of smoke. Temps will start to cool a couple of degrees each day starting Thursday.

*Precipitable water valid Friday at 6pm – Available moisture in the atmosphere will gradually increase starting Wednesday. By Friday and Saturday it’s high enough to indicate precip.*

Cape valid Friday at 6pm – Cape measures instability. Anything in “the blue” indicates enough instability for showers and thunderstorms in our region. Note the bullseyes of blue in our area vs the large blue area across east-central Colorado. That’s a good indication of spotty showers and thunderstorms for us and widespread action for them.

Euro precip through Sunday at midnight shows around 0.05” near town and 0.25” in our mountains. This is all spotty afternoon convective precip so some folks will do better and some will do worse.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
78	90 / 1947	35	23 / 1951

I’m headed into the wilderness for four days. Mark will take over on Wednesday. If something pops up, Arleen will do a quick post.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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2 Responses

RICHARD MILLER says:

June 14, 2021 at 5:11 pm

Thanks

Reply
1. Shawn Pro says:
  
  June 14, 2021 at 5:24 pm
  
  My pleasure. Stay cool!
  
  Reply

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