Record highs possible Sunday through Wednesday…

Falls Creek Falls is on the left and Fourmile Falls is on the right. Pic taken 6/10/2021

Falls Creek Falls is on the left and Fourmile Falls is on the right. Pic taken 6/10/2021

Friday – 11 Jun 2021 – 10:00am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 84 and the low this morning was 40. Yesterday’s peak wind was 32mph.  The cold spots this morning bottomed out around 30…brrrr! We’re seeing 45 degree temperature swings – very impressive!

These are the record highs Sunday through Wednesday:  89, 90, 90, 88, 87 – We’ll get warmer than that!

Smoke update…

The Slate Fire, 23 miles northwest of Flagstaff, was first reported just four days ago.  It has blown up quickly to 5,000 acres and is now the primary cause of smoke in our area.

This image is an HRRR forecast smoke product valid at 6pm today (Friday). It depicts smoke at all levels. As the  Slate Fire plume near Flagstaff move our way it disperses some and is pushed mostly aloft. (Note: I’m only tracking the fires that are impacting us.)
This image is an HRRR forecast smoke product valid at 6pm today (Friday). It depicts smoke at all levels. As the Slate Fire plume near Flagstaff moves our way it’s expected to disperse some and get pushed mostly aloft. (Note: I’m only tracking the fires that are impacting us.)

*** There is not a Red Flag Warning today because winds won’t quite hit the threshold.  However, it will be very dry, warm, and vegetation is also drying out.  I expect similar conditions through at least Wednesday.  Even if a Red Flag Warning is not issued, consider the fire danger extremely high. ***

I grabbed a satellite picture from yesterday evening because it shows the smoke plumes better.  Fires are usually most active and put out the most smoke during the warmest part of the day. The “?” is over the largest fires.  Clouds are obscuring the view of that smoke plume, but winds are pushing it towards Albuquerque.
I grabbed a satellite picture from yesterday evening because it shows the smoke plumes better.  Fires are usually most active and produce the most smoke during the warmest part of the day. The “?” is over the largest fires.  Clouds are obscuring the view of that smoke plume, but winds are pushing it towards Albuquerque.

My forecast…

Rest of today through Tuesday… We’ll continue to see occasional patches of high cirrus, little afternoon cumulus clouds, and periods of smoke.

Afternoon winds will peak around 20mph each day.

High temps today and tomorrow will be 80-90 and lows will be mid-30s to mid-40s. Tomorrow morning is the last time for the cold spots to worry about freezing.

High Temps Sunday through Wednesday…

– Above 7,700ft and closer to the mountains: Low 90s

– Below 7,700ft and near town: Mid-90s

– Arboles: You guys will flirt with 100 and likely top out in the low 100s

Low temps Sunday through Wednesday… Will be upper 30s to low 50s

The next pattern change?… Our giant blocking high pressure will move slightly south and weaken starting Wednesday or Thursday.  By Thursday, temps should cool a few degrees and we’ll start seeing spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Euro precip through Wednesday at midnight hints at spotty afternoon precip starting Wednesday.  The forecast models and I are still uncertain about this, and it’s not much, but it is better than NO chance!
Euro precip through Wednesday at midnight hints at spotty afternoon precip starting Wednesday.  The forecast models and I are still uncertain about this. It’s not much, but it is better than NO chance!

River flow…

This is the San Juan River flow since 15 May.  Area streams are still high but are now passed their peak and on their way down.
This is the San Juan River flow since 15 May. Area streams are still high but are now past their peak and on their way down.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7794 / 19963618 / 1951

My next update will be on Sunday unless something pops up.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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