Curious about the smoke?

Smoke aloft has moved into our area from fires in southern NM and AZ. Satellite valid 6/7/2021 at 3:30pm

Smoke aloft has moved into our area from fires in southern NM and AZ. Satellite valid 6/7/2021 at 3:30pm

Monday – 7 Jun 2021 – 4:30pm

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high today so far has been 81 and the low this morning was 44. Today’s peak wind has been 27mph.

I wasn’t planning to do a post today, but something popped up..

Smoke has moved into the region from fires burning in southern Arizona and southern New Mexico.  This band of smoke is expected to clear out some tonight.  The next band will move through tomorrow morning, and then should disperse tomorrow afternoon.

7 Jun 2021 pm 1530 smoke map
Current smoke as of 3:30pm on Monday
HRRR forecast smoke map valid at midnight tonight. The current band of smoke is expected to clear out some.
HRRR forecast smoke map valid at midnight tonight. The current band of smoke is expected to clear out some.

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HRRR forecast smoke map valid at 8am tomorrow morning. This shows smoke at all levels – most of it will be aloft over us. We are expected to see a clearing trend during the afternoon
HRRR forecast smoke map valid at 8am tomorrow morning. This shows smoke at all levels – most of it will be aloft over us. We are expected to see a clearing trend during the afternoon

Dry upper level southwest flow will persist for a while.  We’ll be dry, warm, and breezy all week.

*** There is a Red Flag Warning valid Tuesday from noon to 9pm. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. ***

I expect similar conditions all week.  Even if a Red Flag Warning is not issued, please be extremely careful!

My forecast…

Rest of today through Sunday… Scattered cumulus clouds will develop as it warms up each day, but there isn’t enough instability and moisture for them to build into showers. 

Winds will peak around 25mph each afternoon.

High temps will be in the upper 70s to mid-80s through Friday.  This weekend will be warmer with highs in the lower to upper 80s.  Lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

NBM precip through Sunday at midnight shows none for Archuleta County.
NBM precip through Sunday at midnight shows none for Archuleta County.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7587 / 19133519 / 1951

My next update will be on Wednesday unless something pops up.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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