Lots of rumbles at 1pm

Thunderstorms are moving slowly southeast at 1pm

As of 1pm there are multiple thunderstorms rumbling in Pagosa Country

Update – Sunday 6 Jun 2021 – 1:15pm

As of 1pm there are multiple thunderstorms in Pagosa Country. They are moving very slowly towards the southeast. It looks like parts of Aspen Springs will get a soaking from one of these cells.

6 Jun 2021 pm lightning
Lightning at 1pm. These cells are moving slowly towards the southeast.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon. Lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and brief periods of heavy rain are possible. Do your rain dances – we need it!

– Shawn

Sunday – 6 Jun 2021 – 10:30am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 83 and the low this morning was 46. Yesterday’s peak wind was 37mph.

Historically June is our driest month with an average of 0.95” of precip.  After today we’ll see a typical June, dry and warm pattern for a while.

6 Jun 2021 am IR satellite
Infrared satellite shows scattered cirrus and altocumulus this morning across the Four Corners region.
6 Jun 2021 am water vapor satellite
Mid-level water vapor clearly shows the moisture band over us. We rely heavily on water vapor products through the summer.

My forecast…

Today… Cumulus clouds will build as we warm up and turn into scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon winds will peak around 20mph though 35-40mph is possible near showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the upper-30s to mid-40s.

High resolution NAM forecast radar from noon to 8pm shows the scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
High resolution NAM forecast radar from noon to 8pm shows the scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
6 Jun 2021 am NWS 72hr precip
NWS 72-hour precip shows less than 0.10” in town. As always with convective activity, there will be rain lottery winners and losers. If a cell parks over your house, you could get a good soaking!

Monday through next Sunday… Scattered cumulus clouds will develop as it warms up each day, but there won’t be enough instability and moisture for them to build into showers.  We’ll be dry and warm all week.

Afternoon winds will peak in the 20-25mph range.

High temps will be in the upper 70s to mid-80s.  Lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

River flow…

There is still snow on north oriented slopes that continues to melt in the high country and make our streams run high.  I expect flow to start tapering off this week.

6 Jun 2021 am river flow
San Juan River flow (top) peaked last night around 1,390cfs. Piedra River flow (bottom) is peaking this morning around 1,020cfs.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7592 / 19463524 / 1951

I’ll probably do a quick update this afternoon, and then my next forecast post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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