Scattered afternoon storms will continue…

Rain

A storm over Pagosa Peak looked impressive yesterday afternoon, but failed to deliver much rain for the valley.

6-3-21: 8:30am update…Our northerly flow continues and so do the pm poppers.

A shortwave will be wrapping around the large high pressure to our west this afternoon, giving us our best chance for storms so far this week. Storms will arrive from a little east of north today as the high pressure has moved slightly west of where it was yesterday. As usual for this time of the year, this will be a convective event and there will be rain lottery winners and losers. These storms can produce brief heavy downpours, wind gusts to 40mph, lightning and potentially small hail. While these storms will have the potential to drop a half of an inch or more if they find your home, they will be very scattered so overall, the general totals will still be fairly low over the next three days as indicated in the latest NWS forecast below.

Screenshot 2021 06 03 080235
Latest NWS 3 day rainfall forecast.

Screenshot 2021 06 03 081005
A shortwave disturbance will be moving towards us today, increasing our odds for thunderstorms this afternoon. Storms will arrive from the NNE.

Depending on how early the storms form, we could see our first high temperatures break the 80 mark over the next couple of days. 80 degrees seems really refreshing compared to what most of the west will be seeing on Friday. Check out Vegas’s predicted high of 109 degrees!

Screenshot 2021 06 03 081513
It will be firecracker hot in west over the next few days!

My forecast…

The rest of the day…Partly cloudy with scattered storms moving from NNE to SSW. Odds for storms will be better than yesterday due to a shortwave disturbance. Wind gusts to around 20mph except higher in and around the storms. Highs will peak in the mid 70s, then drop back to the upper 30’s overnight.

Friday through Sunday: A continued northerly flow along with some shortwave disturbances will give us enough moisture in the mid levels to spark afternoon thunderstorms all weekend. I think precipitation totals through Sunday afternoon will range from 0.20-0.40 for our area and about double that for the mountains. Temps will range from the upper 30’s and low 40’s for lows and upper 70’s to low 80’s for highs depending on how early the thunderstorms form.

-Mark Langford

My weather cam died about a week ago but has now been replaced with a much better one! Check it out on my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7486 / 19123420 / 1951

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