Can you say Northerly Flow?

Peaceful Pagosa Peak

A peaceful late afternoon at Pagosa Peak yesterday. Photo by Mark Langford

6-2-21: 1:30pm update. The weather gods are throwing us a curve for the next couple of days.

Normally around here by the time its June, we look to the SW for scattered storms to form as moisture moving up to our elevation creates a lifting mechanism for forming clouds and scattered storms. With high pressure to our west, we are seeing storms form to our north, then drift into our area thanks to a northerly flow. This scenario usually doesn’t drop much rain for us, but if you happen to find yourself underneath an afternoon storm, you could get 0.10-0.20 of precipitation quickly.

Screenshot 2021 06 02 124150
Some PM poppers are moving into our area from the north this afternoon. Radar time: 12:38pm
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Water vapor satellite imagery shows how our mid level moisture is taking a long trip to get here!

Look for this pattern to continue through Friday with rain odds increasing on Thursday and Friday. By this weekend, a trough will be dropping down out of the Pacific NW and return us back into a SW flow. Models are still trying to figure out that system. The GFS model continues to think we will see about an inch of rain on Thursday and Saturday afternoons while the other models are much drier. I do think we will see late afternoon scattered storms through at least Sunday. If you are planning any hiking, biking and camping please prepare for a potential brief heavy downpour in the afternoons along with some frequent lightning and small hail.

My forecast…

The rest of the day…Partly cloudy with scattered storms moving from north to south. Wind gusts to around 20mph except higher in and around the storms. Highs will peak in the mid 70s, then drop back to the upper 30’s overnight.

Tonight through Friday: A continued northerly flow will give us enough moisture in the mid levels to spark afternoon thunderstorms that will move from north to south. I think precipitation totals through Saturday morning will range from 0.10-0.30 for our area and about double that for the mountains. For now, I think we will continue to see a chance for scattered storms through the weekend, but I’ll delay my rainfall forecast for at least another day until the models get their act together a little better. Temps will range from the upper 30’s and low 40’s for lows and upper 70’s to low 80’s for highs depending on how early the thunderstorms form.

-Mark Langford

My weather cam died about a week ago but has now been replaced with a much better one! Check it out on my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7383 / 19123320 / 1951

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