The rain gods did not read the model forecasts…

Rain gauge

My very dry and depressing rain gauge with nothing but dust in it from yesterday’s rain bust.

6-1-21: 1pm update: More of the same for the next 24hrs.

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Looking at my depressingly dusty rain gauge and the reports from COCORAHS and remote sensors for our area, the rain gods let us down yesterday. The line of storms shifted south, cooling our atmosphere and putting the kibosh on more storms forming yesterday afternoon. Skies cleared and our temps dropped fast last night dropping into the upper 20’s at our home in Little Siberia about a mile north of Hatcher Lake. I would continue to bring in your plants or cover them for the next couple of nights even though it is June!

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Remote sensor rainfall totals. Durango got better rainfall coverage but it came with some marble to mothball size hail.
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COCORAHS rainfall reports from yesterday. Steve Cox was the big rain lottery winner with his 0.61 of rainfall! Shawn and I were the big losers with our “T”. I did get about 10 seconds of marble size hail.

Even though high pressure is in control of our area, there is enough moisture available to form some scattered, mainly mountain hugging storms during the afternoon today and tomorrow. As you can see from the latest 3 day NWS rainfall forecast, there won’t be much rain to worry about. However, if you are not from this area, please bring rain gear with you on any afternoon hikes you are planning…it get’s really cold quickly when you get wet around here!

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The latest 3 day NWS rainfall forecast for our area. As usual, mountains will get more precipitation.

The models are still in disagreement about our next system which will be moving down from the Pacific NW later this week. The GFS thinks we will see will see almost 2.00 of rain from storms on Thursday PM, Saturday PM and Monday PM while the latest EURO and NWS Blend of models is forecasting only 0.10 over the next week! At this time, I’m leaning towards the drier side of the forecasts because this is June (our driest month of the year) and that’s the most likely outcome…but I’d love it if the GFS surprises us! Hopefully there will be more consensus in the model runs over the next 24 hours when I do my next post.

My forecast…

The rest of the day…Partly cloudy with a chance for scattered thunderstorms and wind gusts to around 20mph unless one of those storms gets close to your home. Highs will peak in the lower 70s, then drop back to the 30’s overnight.

Tonight through Thursday: Mostly clear in the mornings with a continued chance for afternoon thunderstorms. There may be a slight boost in odds on Thursday afternoon. Highs will be in the 70’s with lows in the 30’s.

-Mark Langford

My weather cam died about a week ago but has now been replaced with a much better one! Check it out on my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7385 / 19563322 / 1971

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3 Responses

  1. I don’t know about amount, but there was a fair bit of hail, with brief but intense rainfall, at the POA clubhouse. Agree about the strong winds. The absence of real rain was our fault; we were attempting lightning photography at the time, which of course meant that no thunderstorm got within ten miles of us, maybe twenty …

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