Could get a soaking on Monday!

The sun setting behind Graham Peak last night. Pic taken 5/28/2021

The sun setting behind Graham Peak last night. Pic taken 5/28/2021

Saturday – 29 May 2021 – 10:00am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 76 and the low this morning was 39. The cold spots had lows near 30 again this morning. Yesterday’s peak wind was 22mph.   ** The average last freeze is 31 May. **

The low currently over southern California will slowly move southwest over the next few days.  Moisture and instability will increase tomorrow leading to a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mostly over the mountains.  Moisture and instability will peak on Monday as the upper level trough moves through our area and gives us our best shot for precip.  Tuesday we’ll see lingering spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms as the system slowly sinks south out of the area.

The rest of next week a “high over low” Rex block pattern will try to set up – a stagnant pattern with no organized systems in our area.  However, as is typical this time of year, spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorm will be possible each day, especially over the mountains.  We’ll be back to playing the rain lottery!

Water vapor shows an upper level low spinning over southern California.  It will slowly move southwest over the next few days and push more moisture and instability in our region leading to showers and thunderstorms, especially on Monday.
Water vapor shows an upper level low spinning over southern California.  It will slowly move southwest over the next few days and push more moisture and instability in our region leading to showers and thunderstorms, especially on Monday.

My forecast…

Today… Cumulus clouds will build over the mountains, but shower activity will be minimal. Afternoon winds will peak around 20mph. Highs will be in the mid-70s to lower 80s and lows will mostly be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.  The cold spots will flirt with freezing.

Sunday through Tuesday… We’ll see more clouds, especially in the afternoons, and scattered showers and thunderstorms. Most of the action will be over the mountains Sunday and Tuesday.  Monday could be a soaker with up to 0.50” of rain, but amounts will vary.

Afternoon winds will peak around 20mph, though if you see a big dark cloud nearby, brief periods of convective gusts to 30mph are possible.

Sunday will still be warm with highs in the 70s and then we’ll cool into the 60s Monday and Tuesday. Lows will mostly be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.  The cold spots will still bottom out around freezing.

29 May 2021 am NAM fcst Radar
The high resolution NAM forecast radar from noon Sunday to 6pm Monday shows just a few spotty showers tomorrow afternoon and then it gets pretty active Monday afternoon.
The NWS 72 hour precip expects up to 0.50” for Pagosa, 0.80” for Chama, and up to an inch in our mountains.  I think this product is overdoing amounts a bit, but potential is there, and amounts will vary due to much of this being scattered convective precip.
The NWS 72 hour precip expects up to 0.50” for Pagosa, 0.80” for Chama, and up to an inch in our mountains.  I think this product is overdoing amounts a bit, but potential is there, and amounts will vary due to much of this being scattered convective precip.

Wednesday and beyond… Cumulus clouds will build each day as we warm up.  A few will turn into afternoon showers and a thunderstorm or two, especially over the mountains. Highs will be in the 70s and lows will be mid-30s to mid-40s.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7288 / 19103217 / 1916
29 May 2021 am Memorial Day
Please take a minute on Monday to remember those who lost their lives defending our freedom.

Mark will take over tomorrow. 

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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