Slight chance for a few spotty raindrops this afternoon

After a cloudy day yesterday, there are no clouds this morning. That will change as popcorn cumulus clouds build over the mountains as we warm up this morning. Pic taken 5/27/2021

After a cloudy day yesterday, there are no clouds this morning. That will change as popcorn cumulus clouds build over the mountains as we warm up this morning. Pic taken 5/27/2021

Thursday – 27 May 2021 – 8:20am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 66 and the low this morning was 35. The cold spots had lows near 30 this morning. Yesterday’s peak wind was 16mph.   ** The average last freeze is 31 May. **

A transient upper level ridge will move through today and help keep our winds light.  There is just enough moisture and instability for isolated showers and a thunderstorm or two this afternoon, especially over our mountains.

Upper level southwest flow will then take over through Monday when a trough moves through and gives us a good shot at showers and thunderstorms.

Water vapor shows a finger of moisture over us (circled in white).  Though there are no clouds this morning, they will start building this morning as we warm up.
Water vapor shows a finger of moisture over us (circled in white).  Though there are no clouds this morning, they will start building this morning as we warm up. 

My forecast…

Today through next Saturday… Cumulus clouds will build over the mountains each day and a few will turn into afternoon showers and a thunderstorm or two, especially over the mountains.  Today is our best chance to see a few rain drops but consider yourself lucky if you get measurable precip.

Today highs will be in the upper 60s to mid-70s and lows will be 30-40.  Tomorrow highs will be in the lower to upper 70s and lows will be low 30s to low 40s.  Saturday will be even warmer with highs in the mid-70s to lower 80s.

Afternoon winds will peak around 20mph though you get a convective gust to 30mph if you see a big dark cloud nearby.

27 May 2021 am NAM fcst radar
High resolution NAM forecast radar from noon to 8pm tonight shows spotty showers developing this afternoon over our mountains.  If you get measurable precip today, you’ve won the rain lottery.

Sunday through Tuesday… More clouds will build over the mountains leading to afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Monday is our best shot to get measurable precip.

The NBM precip through Tuesday at midnight shows up to 0.25”. The GFS has up to 0.10” and the Euro has up to 0.30”.  Most of this will fall on Monday.
The NBM precip through Tuesday at midnight shows up to 0.25”. The GFS has up to 0.10” and the Euro has up to 0.30”.  Most of this will fall on Monday.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7187 / 19513216 / 1911

Unless something pops up, my next post will be Saturday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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