A few more clouds tomorrow, otherwise expect lots of sun!

This morning’s view of Graham Peak. Lots of snow on the mountain tops and everything is so green – not a cloud in the sky. Pic taken 5/25/2021

This morning’s view of Graham Peak.  Lots of snow on the mountain tops and everything is so green – not a cloud in the sky.  Pic taken 5/25/2021

Tuesday – 25 May 2021 – 8:30am

Overall situation…

The low temps yesterday were in the low 20s and today I saw a few in the mid 20s.  The average low this morning was in the upper 20s to low 30s. The high temp at Stevens Field yesterday was 66.  Yesterday’s peak wind was 22mph though we hit 26mph just north of Turkey Springs.   ** The average last freeze is 31 May. **

Broad upper level southwest flow and dry air will stick with us most of the week.  A dry system will move through tomorrow just bringing us more clouds and stronger winds.  Then starting Sunday, more moisture and instability will lead to isolated afternoon showers and a thunderstorm or two.

Water vapor shows the main low over western Washington and it will move west over the next few days.  The moisture/clouds to the west and southwest will move through Colorado tomorrow.  There isn’t enough storm energy for precip.
Water vapor shows the main low over western Washington and it will move west over the next few days.  The moisture/clouds to the west and southwest will move through Colorado tomorrow.  There isn’t enough storm energy for precip.

My forecast…

Today through Saturday… Other than a few cumulus clouds over the mountains in the afternoons, I expect lots of sun and dry weather. Tomorrow will be the exception as a dry system moves through with more clouds and stronger winds.

Highs will be in the upper 60s to upper 70s.  Lows will be 30-40.  Today through Thursday we’ll be in the bottom part of those ranges and then Friday and Saturday we’ll be towards the top when the warm spots could see highs in the low 80s. As far as plants go, most of us will be good to leave them out starting Wednesday night.  The cold spots will need to wait until Friday night to leave plants out.

Afternoon winds will peak in the 20-25mph range though the windy spots will see gusts to 30mph tomorrow.

Sunday and beyond… More clouds will build over the mountains leading to isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. My forecast confidence is still shaky for this period.

The NBM precip through Sunday at midnight expects less than 0.05” in the south central part of the county.
The NBM precip through Sunday at midnight expects less than 0.05” in the south central part of the county.
The GFS precip through Sunday at midnight expects zero precip in our area.
The GFS precip through Sunday at midnight expects zero precip in our area.
The Euro precip through Sunday at midnight is the most optimistic with 0.10” to 0.20” across much of the county. Let’s cheer for the Euro!
The Euro precip through Sunday at midnight is the most optimistic with 0.10” to 0.20” across much of the county. Let’s cheer for the Euro!

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7082 / 19843119 / 1980

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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