Decent chance for showers this week

The Rio Grande Pyramid, 13,825ft, is the highest peak we can see from the Pagosa Springs area. “The Window” on its left (south) shoulder, is a prominent landmark steeped in folklore. We are also seeing more patches of lime green as the aspen leaves open up. – pic taken 5/13/2021

The Rio Grande Pyramid, 13,825ft, is the highest peak we can see from the Pagosa Springs area.  “The Window” on its left (south) shoulder, is a prominent landmark steeped in folklore. We are also seeing more patches of lime green as the aspen leaves open up. – pic taken 5/13/2021

Saturday – 15 May 2021 – 10:10am

Overall situation…

The high temp at Stevens Field yesterday was 75.  The low this morning was 38.  Yesterday’s peak wind was 31mph.  The colder spots are still seeing lows in the upper 20s. ** The average last freeze is 31 May. **

The upper level ridge has just moved to our east opening us up to upper level southwest flow and a gradual increase of moisture. The upper level low currently over northern California will move nearly over our heads Monday and Tuesday giving us a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms.  The rest of the week we’ll have just enough instability and moisture to kick up scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

The models are all over the place with precip amounts.  This is typical with convective activity.  We’ll be playing the “rain lottery” next week – there will be winner and losers. Let’s hope a few slow moving showers give all of us a good soaking!

Water vapor shows an upper level low spinning over northern California.  It’s expected to move southwest towards Las Vegas and then turn towards us.  It will move over our heads on Tuesday.
Water vapor shows an upper level low spinning over northern California.  It’s expected to move southwest towards Las Vegas and then turn towards us.  It will move over our heads on Tuesday.

My forecast…

Today and tomorrow… Cumulus clouds will build over the mountains in the afternoons, and a couple may turn into showers. I’d be surprised to see any raindrops in the valley.  Expect highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 20s to lower 40s.  Afternoon winds will peak in the 20-30mph range.

Monday through Thursday… Chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.   High temps will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.  Afternoon winds will peak in the 20-30mph range, though stronger isolated gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

The National Blended Model (NBM – a blend of many forecast models) shows 0.05” to 0.20” in the valley and up to 0.50” in our mountains.  Some models show very little precip while others show up to 0.75” and the models are fluctuating considerably.  This is normal with convective precip which will be spotty.  We’ll be playing the “rain lottery” next week.
The National Blended Model (NBM – a blend of many forecast models) shows 0.05” to 0.20” in the valley and up to 0.50” in our mountains.  Some models show very little precip while others show up to 0.75” and the models are fluctuating considerably.  This is normal with convective precip which will be spotty.  We’ll be playing the “rain lottery” next week.

Friday and Saturday… I see potential for 40-45mph winds.  We’ll keep a close eye on it.

Euro peak wind gusts on Saturday at 6pm shows winds around 45mph in the valley and up to 70mph on our mountain peaks.  This product is often 5-10mph too strong and this is 7 days out so we’re still in the “skeptical stage” but it is something to keep an eye on.
Euro peak wind gusts on Saturday at 6pm shows winds around 45mph in the valley and up to 70mph on our mountain peaks.  This product is often 5-10mph too strong and this is 7 days out so we’re still in the “skeptical stage” but it is something to keep an eye on.

River Flow

San Juan River flow peaked last night around 1,090cfs.  Flow is ramping again as temps warm.  We have yet to see run-off peak.  I think it will occur in the next week or two.
San Juan River flow peaked last night around 1,090cfs. Flow is ramping up again as temps warm. We have yet to see run-off peak. I think it will occur in the next week or two.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6980 / 19843014 / 1913

Mark will take over tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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