Two lows, then a high!


A female Broad-tailed Hummingbird enjoys a beautiful afternoon in Pagosa Springs!

5-16-21: 2pm update…Two lows will bring us a chance for precipitation this week.

A slow moving upper level low is currently located near Bakersfield, CA this afternoon moving slowly ESE. As this low get closer over the next couple of days, our rain chances will increase as moisture is injected into our atmosphere. As will be the case for the rest of spring and summer, systems like this one will be convective in nature and produce rain lottery winners and losers in the form of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Although this low looks great on the satellite, it will not be a big rain producer for us. As of this post, a quarter of an inch will most likely be a high total. 1-2 inches of snow at the higher peaks of our nearby mountains is also possible.

Screenshot 2021 05 16 133501
Our upper level low is near Bakersfield, CA this afternoon and slowly moving ESE. Some storms are forming to the NW of the low.

Later in the week, a stronger low will move in from the Pacific NW, giving us better odds for showers and thunderstorms and unfortunately a chance for some high winds on Saturday as Shawn discussed yesterday. That storm will impact us from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening. Models are forecasting anywhere from 0.10-almost an inch of rain from this storm as of this post so I’m holding off on a forecast for a couple of days until I see more model consensus.

Screenshot 2021 05 16 140002
The latest rainfall total forecast from the NWS through Wednesday.
500wh.conus 5
A large closed low over Nevada will give us a good chance for showers and thunderstorms on Friday.

My forecast…

The Rest of Today : A few cumulus clouds and some wind gusts approaching 25 mph.

Monday through Wednesday… A chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Best odds will be on Tuesday. High temps will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.  Afternoon winds will peak in the 20-30mph range, though stronger isolated gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms. Look for 0.10-0.25 of precipitation for the valley and 0.20-0.40 for the mountains with some of that falling as snow.

Thursday through Saturday: Look for another chance for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday as a closed low to our NW impacts us during that time frame. Saturday looks very windy. As of this post, rain odds look better than our first low, but it’s too early to make a good estimate. I will stick my neck out on Monday!

-Mark Langford

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6885 / 19883014 / 1916

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