Great weather through the weekend

Weminuche Creek is running high like all area streams due to run-off. It was a beautiful day for a hike! – pic taken 5/13/2021

Weminuche Creek is running high like all area streams due to run-off.  It was a beautiful day for a hike! – pic taken 5/13/2021

Thursday – 13 May 2021 – 7:30pm

Overall situation…

The high temp at Stevens Field yesterday was 67 and 72 today.  The low this morning was 30.  Yesterday’s peak wind was 26mph and 29mph today.  The colder spots are still seeing lows in the low-20s.

Upper level ridging and dry air will give us nice weather through the weekend. Monday through Wednesday a slow moving upper level low will move through central Arizona and then New Mexico and give us a shot at scattered showers and thunderstorms.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is 13-May-2021-pm-water-vapor-1024x583.jpg
Water vapor shows the jet stream to our north and no organized systems at this time.  Upper level northwest flow will keep us dry through the weekend.
Water vapor shows the jet stream to our north and no organized systems at this time.  Upper level northwest flow will keep us dry through the weekend.

My forecast…

Tonight through Sunday… I expect lots of sun and pleasant temps.  A few cumulus clouds will build over the mountains in the afternoons, but there isn’t enough instability or moisture for them to grow into showers. We’ll see highs in the 70s and lows in the mid-20s to upper 30s.  Afternoon winds will peak in the 20-25mph range.

Monday through Wednesday… Chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.   High temps will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.  Afternoon winds will be less than 20mph, though stronger isolated gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

The GFS precip through Wednesday at 6pm shows 0.05” to 0.20” in the valley and 0.40” to 0.50” in our mountains. Note what’s going on along the Front Range – ugh
The GFS precip through Wednesday at 6pm shows 0.05” to 0.20” in the valley and 0.40” to 0.50” in our mountains. Note what’s going on along the Front Range – ugh
The Euro precip through Wednesday at 6pm is more encouraging with 0.25” to 0.50” in the valley and 0.50” to 0.70” in our mountains.  Right now I’m leaning towards the Euro, however, I think it’s overdoing amounts a bit and because this precip will be nearly all convective afternoon showers, amounts will vary considerably.  We’re still 4-6 days out so the models have time to dial things in better.
The Euro precip through Wednesday at 6pm is more encouraging with 0.25” to 0.50” in the valley and 0.50” to 0.70” in our mountains.  Right now I’m leaning towards the Euro, however, I think it’s overdoing amounts a bit and because this precip will be nearly all convective afternoon showers, amounts will vary considerably.  We’re still 4-6 days out so the models have time to dial things in better.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6783 / 19962912 / 1967

Unless something pops up, my next update will be on Saturday morning.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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