Happy Mother’s Day!

The Piedra River and all area streams are running high due to run-off. Pic taken 5/8/2021

The Piedra River and all area streams are running high due to run-off.  Pic taken 5/8/2021

Sunday – 9 May 2021 – 9:10am

Overall situation…

The high temp at Stevens Field yesterday was 65 and the low this morning was 32.  Yesterday’s peak wind was 44mph. Mark’s house in “Little Siberia” had a low this morning of 23. It’s still too early to leave your plants outside!

A weak upper level low is spinning over central Montana causing a broad area of strong upper level southwest flow.  There is barely enough moisture and instability to kick up an afternoon shower or two over the mountains today and Tuesday.  Our chance for a little precip is a bit better tomorrow as a weak trough moves through in the evening.

By Wednesday ridging will then build back into the region and keep us nice the rest of the week.

Water vapor shows dry air in our area (indicated by orange).  The weak trough currently over western Utah will move through our area tomorrow evening.
Water vapor shows dry air in our area (indicated by orange).  The weak trough currently over western Utah will move through our area tomorrow evening.

My forecast…

Today through Tuesday… Expect partly cloudy skies in the mornings and building clouds in the afternoons with spotty showers over the mountains.  Tomorrow (Monday) we’ll see a few more clouds and a better chance for precip and a thunderstorm or two, especially in the afternoon and evening. Precip amounts in the valley will range from zero to 0.10” and the mountains above 10,000ft will get 1-2” of snow – it will be spotty.  As always with showers and thunderstorms this time of year, rain, graupel, and small hail are possible. Winds will peak in the 30-35mph range near showers.

High temps will be upper 50s to mid-60s and lows will be mid-20s to mid-30s.

9 May 2021 am NAM fcst radar
The high resolution NAM forecast radar between noon today and 5am Tuesday shows occasional periods of spotty showers in our area.  Note the trough moving through around midnight tomorrow.  That’s bad timing for us.  Our chance for precip would be much better if the trough moved through in the afternoon or early evening.
The NWS 72-hour precip shows up to 0.10” in the valley and up to 0.25” in our mountains. As always with convective activity (showers), precip will be spotty.
The NWS 72-hour precip shows up to 0.10” in the valley and up to 0.25” in our mountains. As always with convective activity (showers), precip will be spotty.
The NWS 72-hour snowfall forecast shows 1-2” in our mountains.
The NWS 72-hour snowfall forecast shows 1-2” in our mountains.

Wednesday through Friday… I expect lots of sun and warmer temps.  High temps will be in the upper 60s to mid-70s and lows will be upper 20s to upper 30s.  Afternoon winds will peak in the 20-25mph range.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6682 / 19892815 / 1930

Unless something pops up, my next update will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2024 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon