My forecast is getting drier…

Rain on the Peak

A shower was dropping some rain on Pagosa Peak at 2:30pm today

5-8-21: 3pm quick update…

We have some mainly “mountain hugger” scattered showers and thunderstorms moving through our area this afternoon. So far they are mainly just kicking up wind gusts to over 30 mph for the valley and dropping some light rain on our nearby mountains.

The upper level low to our northwest over Montana will slowly move eastward over the next couple of days giving us a chance for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms through Tuesday. Best odds will be on Monday, but even those odds are not looking very promising as I review the latest model runs.

500wh.conus 4
Current wind gusts at 2:30pm.
Screenshot 2021 05 07 141219 1
An upper level low is almost stationary to our northwest in Montana, but will push eastward over the next couple of days.
Screenshot 2021 05 06 082314 1 1
Latest Satellite imagery of storms mainly on the north side of the mountains.
Screenshot 2021 05 08 144118
There is a cold front situated just to our north this afternoon.

My Forecast: There is a chance for some scattered storms (mainly mountain huggers) in the afternoon all weekend, so taking along a rain jacket when you go hiking would be a good idea. Wind gusts will approach or exceed 30mph the rest of today and Sunday and highs will cool down to the 60’s with continued afternoon chances for scattered storms in the afternoons. Monday and Tuesday will be even cooler (50’s) with the best odds for rain and even a chance for some rain-snow mix on Monday and Tuesday mornings. Lows will stay in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s depending on where you live.

I now think most of us will only see 0.01-0.10 of precipitation through Tuesday and the mountains could pick up 1-3 inches of snow along with 0.05-0.10 of liquid from afternoon showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Shawn takes over tomorrow…I’m hoping he can find more precipitation in his forecast than I can!

-Mark Langford

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6680 / 19892813 / 1981

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