New Mexico is stealing our moisture today!

Pagosa Peak

So far today we’ve only seen some cumulus clouds around Pagosa Springs but south of us is a different story!

5-7-21: 2:30pm update: An active day for New Mexico and a chance for scattered storms for us.

While I don’t envy Albuquerque having a severe thunderstorm warning this afternoon, a few of the non severe thunderstorms for us would be awesome…unfortunately our odds are very tiny today and through the weekend.

By Sunday, an upper level low will get close enough to our north to give us a better chance to see precipitation, but as of this post, totals do not look impressive. Gusty afternoon winds 25-30 mph are possible. Our best odds for seeing precipitation continues to be Sunday night and Monday.

500wh.conus 2
Quite a few storms (some severe) are firing up in New Mexico this afternoon. Movement is NE.
Screenshot 2021 05 06 082314 1
While there is a chance for some scattered storms for our area today, most of the activity is staying to our south.
Screenshot 2021 05 07 141219
Not much precipitation is being forecast from the NWS over the next 66 hours.

My Forecast: Great weather today with highs in the 70’s and breezes 15-20mph the rest of this afternoon. There is a chance for some scattered storms (mainly mountain huggers) in the afternoon all weekend, so taking along a rain jacket when you go hiking would be a good idea. Wind gusts will approach 30mph on Saturday and Sunday and highs will cool down to the 60’s with continued afternoon chances for scattered storms in the afternoons. Monday and Tuesday will be even cooler (50’s) with the best odds for rain and even a chance for some rain-snow mix on Monday and Tuesday mornings. Lows will stay in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s depending on where you live.

I think most of us will see 0.05-0.20 of precipitation through Tuesday and the mountains could pick up 2-4 inches of snow along with 0.05-0.10 of liquid from afternoon showers and thunderstorms this weekend. As has been the case for most of this year, the precipitation lottery winner from our upcoming storm will be the front range once again.

-Mark Langford

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6684 / 19472813 / 1975

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