Confused models and forecaster!

Great Hiking Weather

Enjoy some great hiking weather today…I shot this yesterday along the Piedra River Trail.

5-6-21: 8:30am update…

I’m looking over the latest NWS discussion from Grand Junction and model runs this morning shaking my head trying to get some idea of what to expect over the next five days. The short term is relatively easy…more of the same. High pressure will still be in control over the next 24 hours, giving us highs in the 70’s and lows in the 20’s and lower 30’s. On Friday winds will pick up out of the SW as an upper level low approaches from the NW and stalls out to our north. This feature will give us a tiny chance for some showers over the weekend but as of now, appears to be mainly dry. Any precipitation from Friday through the weekend will come in the form of scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily in the mountains.

Our best chance for rain will come on Monday as a trough approaches from the west. Models are forecasting anywhere from zero to a half inch of precipitation with this next potential system. I’m hoping to have a better handle on it by tomorrow.

500wh.conus 1
An upper level low will hang out to our north over the weekend.
Screenshot 2021 05 06 082314
NWS Rainfall forecast totals through the weekend.

My Forecast: Perfect weather today with highs in the 70’s and reasonable 10-15mph breezes in the afternoon. Friday will see a few more clouds and a chance for some scattered storms (mainly mountain huggers) in the afternoon. Winds will ramp up to 15-20 mph with gusts approaching 30mph. Saturday and Sunday will be cooler with highs in the 60’s and continued afternoon chances for scattered storms in the afternoons. Winds will also continue to be in the 15-20mph range with some gusts approaching 30mph. Monday will be cooler with the best odds for rain and even some rain-snow mix.

-Mark Langford

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6687 / 19162812 / 1950

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