Windy again and a chance for showers

Springtime flowers are popping. We spotted these dwarf larkspurs in the Turkey Springs area.

Springtime flowers are popping.  We spotted these dwarf larkspurs in the Turkey Springs area.

Monday – 10 May 2021 – 9:35am

Overall situation…

The high temp at Stevens Field yesterday was 61 and the low this morning was 41.  Yesterday’s peak wind was 37mph.

The primary upper level low is spinning over Idaho and causing a broad area of strong upper level southwest flow.  Our chance for a little precip is better today as a weak trough moves through around midnight.

By Wednesday ridging will then build back into the region and keep us nice the rest of the week.

Water vapor shows a weak trough across western Utah.  It will move through our area around midnight and kick up a few showers.
Water vapor shows a weak trough across western Utah.  It will move through our area around midnight and kick up a few showers.

My forecast…

Today… Clouds will increase and build this afternoon.  Spotty showers and a thunderstorm or two are possible until midnight.  Our best chance to see some precip will be this evening. Precip amounts in the valley will range from zero to 0.10” and the mountains above 10,000ft will get 1-2” of snow – it will be spotty.  As always with showers and thunderstorms this time of year, rain, graupel, and small hail are possible. Winds will peak in the 30-40mph range.

High temps will be upper 50s to mid-60s and lows will be mid-20s to mid-30s.

10 May 2021 am NAM fcst radar
The high resolution NAM forecast radar between 10am this morning and 4am Tuesday shows occasional periods of spotty showers in our area.  Our best chance for showers will be this evening before the trough moves through around midnight. Our chance for precip would be much better if the trough moved through in the afternoon or early evening.
The NBM precip through Tuesday at 6pm shows less than 0.10” in the valley and up to 0.25” in our mountains.  Note who’s hogging all the moisture again!
The NBM precip through Tuesday at 6pm shows less than 0.10” in the valley and up to 0.25” in our mountains.  Note who’s hogging all the moisture again!
The NWS snowfall forecast through Wednesday morning shows our mountains getting 1-2” while the Front Range gets 8-12” – boooo hissss
The NWS snowfall forecast through Wednesday morning shows our mountains getting 1-2” while the Front Range gets 8-12” – boooo hissss

Tuesday through Friday… I expect lots of sun and a warming trend.  Tuesday will be the coolest day with highs in the upper 50s to mid-60s and lows in the mid-20s to mid-30s. Wednesday will be 5 degrees warmer and then we’ll see highs in the 70s the rest of the week.  Afternoon winds will peak in the 25-30mph range on Tuesday and then 20-25mph the rest of the week.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6782 / 19893018 / 1950

Unless something pops up, my next update will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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