Rain tomorrow and snow in the mountains!

Satellite shows the low over southwest Wyoming and the trailing trough extending to southwest Utah. The trough and the showers ahead of it will be in our area tomorrow.

Satellite shows the low over southwest Wyoming and the trailing trough extending to southwest Utah.  The trough and the showers ahead of it will be in our area tomorrow.

Sunday – 2 May 2021 – 2:45pm

Overall situation…

The high temp at Stevens Field yesterday was 76 and 67 so far today and the low this morning was 38.  Yesterday’s peak wind was 22mph and 21mph so far today.

A low pressure system will move through tomorrow, bringing more clouds, showers, and cooler temperatures. Ridging will then build back into the region keeping us nice the rest of the week.

*** The Pueblo NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Eastern San Juan Mountains for 6-14” of snow valid midnight tonight (Sunday) to midnight tomorrow (Monday). *** I think that Wolf Creek Pass will be on the low end of that range.

There are currently NO watches, warnings, or advisories for Archuleta County.  There is a Winter Weather Advisory out for the Eastern San Juan Mountains and a Red Flag Warning for portions of LaPlata County.
There are currently NO watches, warnings, or advisories for Archuleta County.  There is a Winter Weather Advisory out for the Eastern San Juan Mountains and a Red Flag Warning for portions of LaPlata County.

My forecast…

Tonight… Clouds will increase with the first few showers over the mountains after midnight and in the valley around sunrise.  As usual, the showers will be spotty. Low temps tonight will be upper 20s to upper 30s.

Tomorrow and Tuesday… Expect mostly cloudy skies and occasional showers and a thunderstorm or two, especially over the mountains.  Rainflakes are possible in the valley early Monday morning, but I don’t expect any snow to accumulate.  Our mountains will get 4-8” of snow above 9,500ft. Precip will be more spotty on Tuesday. High temps will be mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be mid-20s to mid-30s. Tuesday will be a few degrees warmer. Afternoon winds will peak in the 20-25mph range.

The NWS 72-hour precip shows up to 0.50” in the valley and 0.70”to nearly an inch in our mountains. I think this product is a bit optimistic for the valley and expect closer to 0.25”.
The NWS 72-hour precip shows up to 0.50” in the valley and 0.70”to nearly an inch in our mountains. I think this product is a bit optimistic for the valley and expect closer to 0.25”.
The NWS snowfall forecast shows 4-8” in our mountains and no accumulation in the valley.
The NWS snowfall forecast shows 4-8” in our mountains and no accumulation in the valley.

Wednesday through Friday… I expect lots of sun and a warming trend.  Wednesday high temps will be mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be mid-20s to mid-30s and then by Thursday and Friday we’ll be into the 70s for highs.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6382 / 19472712 / 1967

My next post will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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