Update: Snowing heavily on Wolf Creek Pass

It's snowing heavily up on Wolf Creek Pass this evening

It’s snowing heavily on Wolf Creek Pass this evening

Monday – 3 May 2021 – 7:30pm

Things were pretty quiet up on the Pass until this evening where it’s snowing heavily now. Precip amounts have also been good in the valley. The winner so far is 0.61″ just east of town.

Looks like a pretty good soaking so far!
Looks like a pretty good soaking so far!

Mark will take over tomorrow.

– Shawn


Monday – 3 May 2021 – 7:30pm

Showers and a thunderstorm have developed in the area. We’ll continue to see bands of showers and a thunderstorm or two this afternoon. Expect brief periods of heavy mixed precip to include small hail and graupel, and gusty winds. Brief periods of heavy snow are possible in the mountains above 9,500ft which will reduce visibility.

3 May 2021 am IR satellite2
Satellite is much more active than the my post just two hours ago.
3 May 2021 am Radar
These showers are all moving toward the northeast. Reminder… we can only see cells that are least 25,000ft high so not all precip is detected.

Please share your weather reports in the comments – thanks!

– Shawn


Monday – 3 May 2021 – 9:30am

Overall situation…

Satellite shows the low just to our north and trailing trough just to our west.  Our weather will get more active this afternoon as that trough nears.
Satellite shows the low just to our north and the trailing trough just to our west.  Our weather will get more active this afternoon as the trough nears.

The high temp at Stevens Field yesterday was 68 and the low this morning was 40.  Yesterday’s peak wind was 30mph.

The low pressure is just to our north along with the best energy and moisture.  As the sun warms things up later this morning, we’ll see more showers.  So far precip in our area has been light and has stayed over the mountains.  The trough will move through this evening but spotty showers will linger through Tuesday afternoon. The models have been back and forth on precip amounts.  I expect mostly convective precip which means amounts will vary.

Ridging will then build back into the region keeping us nice the rest of the week.

*** The Pueblo NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Eastern San Juan Mountains for 1-10” of snow valid until midnight tonight).  *** I think that Wolf Creek Pass will be in the middle of that range.

There are currently NO watches, warnings, or advisories for Archuleta County.  There is a Winter Weather Advisory out for most of southern Colorado’s mountains.
There are currently NO watches, warnings, or advisories for Archuleta County.  There is a Winter Weather Advisory out for most of southern Colorado’s mountains.

My forecast…

Today and Tuesday… Expect mostly cloudy skies and occasional showers and a thunderstorm or two, especially over the mountains.  Wolf Creek Pass will get 3-6” of snow above 9,500ft. Convective precip will come in quick, heavy bursts and include rain, graupel, and small hail. High temps will be mid to upper 50s and lows will be mid-20s to mid-30s. Tuesday will be a few degrees warmer. Afternoon winds will peak in the 20-30mph range.

The high resolution NAM forecast radar through midnight tonight shows shower activity increase late morning through the evening.
The high resolution NAM forecast radar through midnight tonight shows shower activity increase late morning through the evening.
The NWS 72-hour precip shows up to 0.25” in the valley and 0.35”to 0.75” in our mountains. Precip amounts on this product and other forecast products have been bouncing up and down.  I expect amounts in our area to vary quite a bit due to being spotty convective showers.
The NWS 72-hour precip shows up to 0.25” in the valley and 0.35”to 0.75” in our mountains. Precip amounts on this product and other forecast products have been bouncing up and down.  I expect amounts in our area to vary quite a bit due to being spotty convective showers.
The NWS snowfall forecast shows 3-6” in our mountains and no accumulation in the valley.
The NWS snowfall forecast shows 3-6” in our mountains and no accumulation in the valley.

Wednesday through Friday… I expect lots of sun and a warming trend.  Wednesday high temps will be mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be mid-20s to mid-30s and then by Thursday and Friday we’ll be into the 70s for highs.  Afternoon winds will peak in the 20-25mph range with higher gusts possible on Friday.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6485 / 19472714 / 1951

I’ll do a quick update later today.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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