Lots of sun and warm through the weekend – rain on Monday

Glorious weather across Colorado! This is Pikes Peak and Garden of the Gods - pic taken 4/30/2021

Glorious weather across Colorado!  This is Pikes Peak and Garden of the Gods  – pic taken 4/30/2021

Saturday – 1 May 2021 – 9:00am

Overall situation…

The high temp at Stevens Field yesterday was 73 and the low this morning was 36.  Yesterday’s peak wind was 13mph.

*** A prescribed burn is planned today in the Turkey Springs/Brockover area.  Southwest winds this afternoon will push the smoke northeast towards Pagosa Peak.  Hatcher Lake, The Reserve, Wildflower, Roush, and Jacobson Hill will likely experience some smoke. ***

The warm temps are melting high country snow.  Area streams are rising.

San River flow hit 950cfs last night. It will peak even higher tonight.
San Juan River flow hit 950cfs last night. It will peak even higher tonight.

An upper level ridge will move through our area later today – look for the squiggly blue lines overhead – a silly weather joke!  A low pressure system will move through on Monday, bringing more clouds, showers, and cooler temperatures. Ridging will then build back into the region keeping us nice the rest of the week.

Satellite shows the upper level ridge nearly over our heads this morning.  Monday’s system is moving through the Great Basin.
Satellite shows the upper level ridge nearly over our heads this morning.  Monday’s system is moving through the Great Basin.

My forecast…

Today and tomorrow… Scattered cumulus clouds will develop in the afternoons.  Spotty afternoon showers and a thunderstorm or two are possible, mostly over the mountains. Afternoon winds will peak around 20mph today and then around 25mph tomorrow.

High temps will be 70 to 80 today and then 5 degrees cooler tomorrow.  Lows will be low 30s to low 40s. I’m confident that we will have a winner for the 75 degree contest today!

*** Local area streams will stay high through the weekend due to high country run-off. ***

Monday… Expect more clouds and a chance for showers and a thunderstorm or two.  Rainflakes are possible in the valley early Monday morning, but I don’t expect any snow to accumulate.  Our mountains will get 2-4” of snow above 9,500ft. High temps will be mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be mid-20s to mid-30s. Afternoon winds will peak in the 20-25mph range.

The NWS 72-hour precip shows up to 0.25” in the valley and up to 0.50” in our mountains.
The NWS 72-hour precip shows up to 0.25” in the valley and up to 0.50” in our mountains.
The NWS snowfall forecast shows 2-4” in our mountains and no accumulation in the valley.
The NWS snowfall forecast shows 2-4” in our mountains and no accumulation in the valley.

Tuesday through Friday… Spotty afternoon showers are possible Tuesday, especially over the mountains, otherwise I expect lots of sun and a warming trend.  Temps Tuesday will range from lows in the mid-20s to mid-30s to highs in the upper 50s to mid-60s.  Wednesday will be 5 degrees warmer and then by Thursday and Friday we’ll be back into the 70s for highs.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6379 / 1947268 / 1967

I’ll be busy with family tomorrow, but I hope to get a post out in the evening.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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